Utah State transfer portal player breakdown — MJ Collins | Sports

Utah State added a bundle of transfer commits on Monday, but even in the crowd of players who signed up to don the Aggie Blue and Fighting White, Collins stands out as a potential impact guy for what fans are hoping is another finish in the upper part of the Mountain West standings.

Head coach Jerrod Calhoun got to be picky with his transfer recruits and Collins withstood the scrutiny despite some worrying numbers on his stat page. In USU’s press release announcing the signing, Calhoun praised his versatility, length and athleticism.

“We are thrilled to welcome MJ to the Aggie family,” Calhoun said. “MJ’s exceptional versatility on the perimeter will allow him to make an immediate impact at all three levels of the game. His length and athleticism will provide a major lift for us on the defensive side of the ball. MJ has thrived at the highest levels of college basketball and his winning pedigree will be a welcome addition to our program.”

Let’s dig into exactly why Calhoun is placing his faith in Collins and where he can impact the game the most.

As a note on source for stats in this piece. Basic averages (points, rebounds, etc.) come from Sports Reference, as do the advanced stats of Win Shares and Box Plus/Minus. Bayesian Performance Rating comes from EvanMiya.com as does any lineup data used. All stats referencing specific shot types (i.e. shots at rim or jump shots) along with play-specific shot attempts (such as post-ups or spot-up shooting) come from Synergy Sports.

Biographical Info

• Height: 6’4″
• Weight: 190 lbs
• Class: Senior (1 year of eligibility)
• Hometown: Clover, SC
• High School: Combine Academy
• Previous Colleges: Virginia Tech (2022-23 & 2023-24), Vanderbilt (2024-25)

Collins began his career at Virginia Tech and pretty quickly became a key cog in a pair of 19-15 seasons with the Hokies. By January of his freshman season he entered the starting lineup full time, starting his final 14 games as a freshman and then starting 28 of 32 games as a sophomore. Although poised to take another step forward at Virginia Tech, Collins opted to transfer and landed at Vanderbilt where he was a staple of the second unit, playing 20 minutes per game but coming off the bench in all but one game of the year. Collins did see a jump in efficiency, but not in role, which likely heralded his second transfer in as many off-seasons.

Statistics

Here’s a summary of Collins’ advanced catch-all metrics, with context of his rank within Vanderbilt and his conference (SEC).

• Box Plus/Minus (BPM): 1.1 (10th on team / 133rd in SEC
  • Offensive BPM: 1.2 (7th / 103rd)
  • Defensive BPM: -0.1 (11th / 141st)
• Win Shares (WS): 1.1 (8th / 122nd)
  • Offensive WS: 0.6 (7th / 109th)
  • Defensive WS: 0.5 (9th / 125th)
  • WS per 40 Minutes: 0.068 (10th / 130th)
• Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR): 1.19 (9th / 128th) 
  • Offensive BPR: 1.06 (8th / 115th)
  • Defensive BPR: 0.13 (9th / 128th)

Strengths

• Good Athlete
• Has size to play both wing positions (and PF in a pinch)
• Moves well with ball in hands
• Good Transition scorer
• Active defender
• Great at boxing out bigger opponents

Weaknesses

• Low shooting percentages across the board
• Struggles with half court scoring
• Has struggled to be a decent jump shooter his whole career
• Advanced metrics skeptical of defensive impact

Scouting Report

Usually these scouts start with offense, but defense is the thing that ultimately stands out most with Collins. And, for starters, watching him play defense and then comparing that with advanced metrics is quite the experience as they seem to disagree quite a bit on whether Collins is a solid defender. The analytics aren’t a fan while film tells a much more positive story. It’s a bit worrying, given the advanced metrics are usually pretty good at identifying high-level defensive players, but it shouldn’t be the end-all-be all of the discussion.

It’s possible part of the reason analytics aren’t big on Collins’ defense is that he wasn’t used much as a point of attack defender and obviously wasn’t a rim protector. Those two things get picked up very quickly on film and by analytics. Still, Collins is very active on and off the ball when playing defense. His solid length and speed comes in handy even against SEC-caliber talent.

Jumping into some clips from his games, this first one showcases Collins navigating around a screen to prevent a drive to the basket. 

It’s not the kind of defensive play that will ever make a highlight reel (unless making it in this article counts) but it was a crucial effort given a situation like that where shooters and a high pick-and-roll cleared out the paint and the winding path from the ball-handler usually ends in an open layup. Collins then pestered the ball-handler even more after the fact for good measure. This clip was also refreshing considering one of the few weaknesses to Collins’ defense is his screen navigation. A lot of times he got hung up and struggled to keep up with his man.

One play that stood out despite an ultimately bad result was one where Collins was forced to defend multiple players after the opposing offense managed to overload the defense. On this play, Collins quickly recognized that he has to cover the top of the paint or it would have created a two-on-one situation in the paint for Missouri. Collins collapsing ends up forcing a longer cross-court pass which he is able to mostly recover to.

Collins heavily contested the ensuing 3-point shot and it’s just unfortunate that he had to leave a 39 percent 3-point shooter slightly unguarded for a second to prevent an easier look in the paint. It’s also an example of good defense, but just better offense.

A massive key to defense is the ability to recover. Sticking in front of players by use of foot speed and quickness alone is simply not viable, even for the best defenders. Instead, elite defenders use speed and length to recover from moments where the offensive player gets the jump on them, either through screens, a good dribble move or attacking a closeout. Collins has showcased pretty solid recovery ability, even in a play like this next one where it was kind of his fault that he got in those recovery situations through overeager point of attack defense.

Collins has the versatility to guard on the perimeter and even hold his own in the post. We’ll bundle a few clips together from Vanderbilt’s game against Nevada that showcases his ability to not get pushed around, even when defending guys that have several inches of height and quite a few pounds over Collins. It’s worth seeing just to know he has plenty ability to stand up to Mountain West level players, even the bigger ones. And while some of these shots did end up in the basket, it’s notable how hard Collins made the guys work for their shots.

Something that will not go unnoticed by Calhoun, or by most coaches in general, is how well Collins boxes out. It shows up in a couple of those plays (and is the main reason the one of him switching onto Nick Davidson despite Davidson not touching the ball stayed as one of the clips) and it’s going to make Collins a valuable small forward, even if his rebounding numbers are unlikely to jump off the page.

Ultimately, Collins is a good defender who’s underutilization hid his impact on that end of the floor a bit. It’s possible Utah State’s zone defense could have a similar effect on his analytical numbers. But make no mistake, he could very well be the best defender on the Aggies next season.

On the offensive side of things there’s basically one overarching concern with two branches to look at in this scouting report. Collins has bad field goal percentage numbers and it’s pretty hard to sugar-coat it. Of 3,112 players to qualify for the leaderboards, Collins ranked 2,075th in True Shooting Percentage at 52.2 percent (a number that would rank him 12th on the Aggies last year, ahead of only Tucker Anderson and Jordy Barnes). The best that can be said is that last year he set new career highs by making 42.0 percent of his shots overall and 29.3 percent of 3-pointers. You could also point out his pretty decent free-throw shooting, sitting at 78.4 percent for his career, but that dipped last year to a career-low 72.9 percent.

Finding a way to make his shots more viable is going to be job number one for Collins this offseason, likely starting with his 3-point shot. He’s had flashes of good 3-point shooting in a couple of areas at a couple of times in his career, but none of it has lasted so far. As a freshman, Collins shot 34.7 percent on spot-up 3-pointers, with movement threes on plays like pick-and-roll, in transition or off screens dragging down the percentage. That’s a very common thing to see for freshman that are still looking to expand beyond the basic shooting skill set. Except that Collins’ spot-up shooting got worse with each successive year, dropping to 27.9 percent as a sophomore and 24.6 percent last year.

There’s something in his shot fundamentally that needs to be tweaked. And while playing shooting coach using broadcast angles is a dangerous game, the most likely culprit seems to be his release which doesn’t seem to have a high level of consistency. His wrist snap is not always as straight as it needs to be and his arm sometimes wobbles a bit on release. It’s most pronounced in this clip from one of his Virginia Tech games (although he made the shot anyway) and we get a nice overhead view of it.

Surprise surprise, in many clips of Collins nailing even movement 3-point shots, his motion is much more smooth, fluid and just spot-on.

Calhoun developed a reputation as a bit of a shot doctor this past year with the job he did with Falslev and Dexter Akanno, which is partly deserved. Those to players combined to shoot 31.7 percent in 2023-24, but in just one offseason under Calhoun they both went from sub-average to elite shooters with a combined percentage of 40.6 this past season. Those two were the biggest success stories, though overall, five of the eight Aggies to attempt at least 30 threes last season saw their percentage go up. Two of the three that went down, Ian Martinez (from 38.1 percent to 36.6) and Isaac Johnson (34.2 to 33.3), were mostly minor drops with only Tucker Anderson (38.1 to 29.5) seeing a catastrophic drop. Altogether, five of the eight USU players that attempted at least 30 threes shot better in 2024-25 than they did in 2023-24 with a collective jump from 34.3 percent to 35.6. For reference, teams that shot those percentages this past season would rank 163rd and 81st, respectively.

If this general success in helping (most of) his players improve in 3-point shooting was not just a one-year thing (which some similar evidence from his time at Youngstown State suggesting it isn’t an isolated phenomenon), there’s a pretty good chance Collins could hit the league average in 3-point shooting. That would give Collins tremendous added value on the court alongside his defense.

The other note on field goal percentage comes from Collins’ shooting percentage at the rim. His career rate in three years is 54.3 (100 for 184) which is not horrible. But, for a player with solid athleticism and decent length for a college wing, it’s a bit low. Perhaps even more so when he’s not been an offensive focal point so his layup attempts have been a bit on the easier side.

For the optimist, there is some evidence that transferring from a power conference into the mid-majors can be good for rim FG%. Martinez went from a very similar 54.7 percentage across three years at Utah/Maryland to making 62.6 percent in his two years at Utah State (though there’s also examples of it not working out super well, Marco Anthony and Dexter Akanno still struggled around the rim despite transferring “down” conferences). Ideally Collins will be able to build enough confidence to bolster his finishing alongside a reworked 3-pointer.

Fit with Utah State

If Collins fulfils most of his potential with the Aggies, he will end up replacing Ian Martinez in the starting lineup but emulating more of Dexter Akanno’s role as a 3&D player. Obviously the “3” in that archetype designation is being optimistic about Collins’ ability to drastically improve his 3-point shooting. Scoring roles for next year’s team are going to shift a little away from the wing and shift more towards guards like Falslev, Drake Allen and Kolby King and toward the post with Garry Clark. Collins’ offensive role will likely stick to off-ball shooting but with a few more plays run through him as one would expect going from bench player to likely starter.

To be a viable offensive threat, Collins will need to hit his 3-pointers with more consistency. In his 22 career games of 10-plus points, Collins’ 3-point percentage is 43.8 (42 of 96) with him shooting 19.3 percent from deep in his remaining 76 non double-figure scoring games. And while it’s a bit too obvious to point out that players score more points when they shoot better from the field, having a viable 3-point shot really opens up Collins’ potential offensive impact given he’s really struggled to score in other ways.

Even aside from 3-point shooting, there should be a significant role on offense for Collins. His speed and athleticism should make him a useful tool for the Aggies’ offense, which utilizes its wings in off-ball screen actions a lot more than other teams (Martinez ranked in the 96th percentile for how much of his offense came in off screen actions with Dexter Akanno in the 82nd percentile and Mason Falslev in the 76th percentile). A lot of Utah State’s off-ball screening was to set up 3-pointers for Martinez, Falslev and Akanno, but there was plenty to set up looks inside the arc.

Collins didn’t have very many plays run for him like this, but there was one decent example that popped up where he ran an off-ball obstacle course to set up a lay-in.

These will probably formulate the majority of plays run specifically for him, with the exception being if he can up his 3-point shooting. Calhoun got creative to craft open looks for his 3-point shooters and if Collins makes it worth the while by improving drastically in that area, things could get very interesting for the Aggies’ offense.

The biggest area of potential impact will ultimately be on defense (and we’ve already gone over a lot of his potential in that area). Most of Utah State’s additions in the transfer portal skew toward having bigger impacts on offense and adding scoring threats. Those were big needs given the loss of the Aggies’ leading scorer and one its best 3-point shooters. But improvements need to be made with USU’s defense, especially in guarding the ball on the perimeter. Martinez struggled to have consistent impact there but Collins could very well become a staple on the defensive end. His highly active and physical defense should fit flawlessly into the Aggies’ matchup zone.