Grand Canyon made headlines and stirred up a small storm by managing to work out a deal with the Mountain West to move into the conference this fall instead of making its debut in the 2026-27 season.
Setting aside concerns raised by the departing five members of the Mountain West, the question stands as to whether the Lopes will be a viable team in the conference in its first year as a member.
A cursory look at GCU’s recent seasons would suggest yes. Their overall record in these last five season (all under head coach Bryce Drew) of 0.750 is a pretty good starting place. After that, the fact that the Lopes have made the NCAA Tournament four out of the last five seasons in a one-bid league showcases high-level consistency. Furthermore, there’s some evidence of decent success against Mountain West teams in that five-year span. Grand Canyon has played five games against MW teams (primarily Nevada and Wyoming), amassing a 3-2 record in those contests.
- Dec. 11, 2020 — 87-77 win vs Nevada
- Nov. 22, 2021 — 61-68 loss vs Wyoming
- Nov. 12, 2022 — 46-59 loss at Nevada
- Dec. 3, 2022 — 66-58 win at Wyoming
- Dec. 5, 2023 — 79-73 win vs No. 25 San Diego State
Four of these five games have come against teams that ended the year inside the top 100 of KenPom, with GCU being 2-2 in those games and having a Top 25 win in their cap when they defeated SDSU in 2023.
The bad news for Grand Canyon is that to be a successful team this year, they’ll need to defy two decades of precedent. Since the inception of the Mountain West in 1999, six teams have joined the Mountain West in men’s basketball. All six posted conference records below 0.400. Four of the six finished dead-last (the maximum possible number as there were two seasons where a pair of teams joined. The best-finishing teams among them all were either Fresno State or Utah State, depending on how you measure it (Utah State was fourth to last, being eighth out of 11 teams. Fresno State finished seventh, but was third-to-last as there were only nine teams).
First-year performance in Mountain West Men’s Basketball by New Members
| Team | Season Joined | Came From | 5-Year Conf Win% Before MW | Conf Win% Year Before MW | 1st Year in MW Conf Win% | Difference from 5-Year Conf Win% | Difference from Year Before Conf Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | 2005-06 | CUSA | 0.413 | 0.500 | 0.125 | -0.288 | -0.375 |
| Boise State | 2011-12 | WAC | 0.550 | 0.625 | 0.214 | -0.336 | -0.411 |
| Fresno State | 2012-13 | WAC | 0.308 | 0.214 | 0.313 | +0.005 | +0.099 |
| Nevada | 2012-13 | WAC | 0.705 | 0.929 | 0.188 | -0.517 | -0.741 |
| San Jose State | 2013-14 | WAC | 0.266 | 0.176 | 0.056 | -0.210 | -0.120 |
| Utah State | 2013-14 | WAC | 0.775 | 0.611 | 0.389 | -0.386 | -0.222 |
| AVERAGE | — | — | 0.503 | 0.509 | 0.214 | -0.289 | -0.295 |
These poor finishes have come even to teams that were great the year, or several years, prior. Nevada and Utah State are good examples of that, the Wolf Pack especially so as they went from a 28-7 season to 12-19 when joining the Mountain West.
The good news is that first-year troubles have not been a barrier to eventual success, or even second-year success. In fact, despite all six posting sub-0.400 conference records in their debut season, four of the teams made it above 0.500 in their second season (Boise State, Fresno State, Nevada, Utah State). And those same four teams have each won at least one conference championship in the ensuing years.
As of right now, Grand Canyon ranks fifth in the preseason T-Rank projections among Mountain West teams (84th nationally). The Lopes sit right in a group with Colorado State (88th) and New Mexico (90th), with a small gap between them and Utah State (65th) and UNLV (74th).
Historical precedent stands against GCU. Analytical projections suggest it’ll do OK, but won’t contend for a title. Utah State’s head coaching staff is pretty certain Grand Canyon will do pretty solid. Aggies assistant coach Ben Asher indicated in an interview with the Full Court Press that they’re expecting matchups with the Lopes to be Quad 2, or even Quad 1 games.
