Mountain West Watch Mar. 4 — Broncos on the rise and regular season conference title scenarios – Cache Valley Daily

One final week of regular season play in the Mountain West, which means just two more Mountain West Watch articles for the season. As things get closer I keep making minor additions/changes. This week I’ve added title scenarios for all teams that still have a shot at the regular season. 

Standings, AP Poll & Conference Tournament Matchups

Here’s the standings as they sit today, along with AP Poll ranks, if applicable (parenthesis for teams not in the top 25 itself, but receiving votes in the poll, the number being where they’d rank if you extended beyond 25th).

Last week I added Barttorvik’s conference title odds to this table, but I’ve moved those further below in a section with conference title scenarios.

Rank	Team	Conf. Record	Overall Record
1	#22 Utah State	12-4	24-5
2	(28) Boise State	12-4	21-8
3	(26) Nevada	11-5	24-6
4	#21 San Diego State	11-5	22-7
5	UNLV	11-5	18-10
6	(33) New Mexico	9-7	21-8
7	(37) Colorado State	9-8	21-9
8	Wyoming	6-10	13-16
9	Fresno State	4-12	11-18
10	Air Force	2-14	9-19
11	San Jose State	2-15	9-21

Neither of the teams already in the poll moved up, with San Diego State dropping one spot to No. 21 and Utah State standing pat at 22. There were three teams that moved up in the “others receiving votes” section as Nevada jumped to the cusp of being in the top 25 and Boise State climbed all the way to 28th. New Mexico, despite losing once last week, jumped from 35 to 33.

If the MW Tournament Started Today

If the conference tournament started today, here’s who would be playing whom in the first and second rounds:

First Round Matchups

• (8) Wyoming vs (9) Fresno State
• (7) Colorado State vs (10) Air Force
• (6) New Mexico vs (11) San Jose State

Second Round Matchups

• (1) Utah State vs Winner of (8) Wyoming / (9) Fresno State
• (4) San Diego State vs (5) UNLV
• (2) Boise State vs Winner of (7) Colorado State / (10) Air Force
• (3) Nevada vs Winner of (6) New Mexico / (11) San Jose State

Walker’s Mountain West Power Rankings

Here’s this week’s edition to my own four-tiered power rankings for the conference.

Tier 1 

1. San Diego State (1)

2. Boise State (3) – moved up from Tier 2

3. Utah State (2)

Tier 2

4. Nevada (5)

5. New Mexico (4)

6. UNLV (6)

7. Colorado State (7)

Tier 3

8. Wyoming (8)

9. Fresno State (9)

Tier 4

10. San Jose State (10)

11. Air Force (11)

You might call it controversial, having Boise State leapfrog Utah State even though the Aggies have yet to yield the top spot in the conference and hold the season tiebreaker over the Broncos. But this is a reflection of where I think both teams are right now. USU hasn’t played at its full potential while the Broncos are rolling through its recent slate of games. My main hold-up on moving Boise State up into Tier 1 despite winning four straight games by 20+ points each was who the opponents were. But with a very solid home win over New Mexico that hang-up can be cast aside for the moment.

Average Computer Ranks

Boise State’s rise toward the top is well captured in the average computer ranks. Another great week would push the Broncos into the top two for the first time this season. Very little significant movement from anyone else, though. Most teams near the top dropped a couple of spots due to picking up a loss (New Mexico, Colorado State) or through underwhelming performances (Utah State, San Diego State). Probably the most surprising team to not have significant movement was Nevada, who beat Colorado State on the road and then put down Fresno State without much trouble but barely, just barely moved up in the average ranks.

Biggest Riser

Boise State

You may have gotten the picture regarding Boise State’s rise in previous sections. The Broncos have won five straight games and their latest is their first signature win since Jan. 31. Boise State had lost two straight matchups with teams in the top seven of the conference (in back-to-back losses at Colorado State and at Utah State) but in beating New Mexico on Saturday, the Broncos have finally proven once again their ability to beat top teams in the conference.

This win streak has kept Boise State at the top of the standings, and with only a shallow pinch of luck, the Broncos would only have to win one of their next two games to end up with at least a share of the regular season conference title. That’s important because their next two games are home against Nevada and at San Diego State, two very tough games that will severely test Boise State’s recent run of form.

Biggest Faller

New Mexico

There’s really only one team to put in here and it means the Lobos have spent three straight weeks in this section. It’s not to beat a dead horse, it’s just that New Mexico is the one team consistently falling short each and every week. Computer rankings and even AP voters still like the Lobos, but the conference standings and bracketologists do not. New Mexico is firmly on the bubble (granted the right side of it for now) and are completely out of the regular season title race. At this point, a run to the conference tournament final is about the only thing that would lock New Mexico into the tournament and salvage what’s been a disappointing stretch of the season.

Bracketology

Here’s the most recent update from BracketMatrix.com, from March 3.

In the Tournament

• San Diego State – 4 seed (in all 93 brackets on the database)








• Utah State – 7 seed (93/93)
• Colorado State – 7 seed (92/93)






• Boise State – 8 seed (93/93)
• Nevada – 9 seed (93/93)
• New Mexico -11 seed (88/93)

Boise State’s upward climb has it up to an eight seed after being a nine seed last week and 10 seed in previous weeks. Nevada has also risen up to a nine seed, being a 10 seed by consensus last week. New Mexico has continued to fall, now appearing in the lowest percentage of brackets in weeks and coming in as an 11 seed, firmly on the bubble. Funnily enough, UNLV actually made a brief appearance on a bracket in the database last week as a singular bracketologist picked the Rebels to be the automatic qualifier from the Mountain West via winning the conference tournament. It’s certainly not out of the realm of believability, but it’s also the only way UNLV is making the tournament at this point. 

Conference Title Scenarios

With so many other added sections, I’m excising the Awards Ladder for now (especially since I don’t really have any notable changes right now). It’ll return next week where I’ll put forth an entire All-Mountain West ballot with all-conference teams to go with who I believe should earn each of the awards.

In lieu of the awards ladder, I’ve got all the conference title scenarios, barring any human errors. The only teams with any mathematical chance at this point for a shared or outright title are, in order of likelihood, Utah State, Boise State, San Diego State, Nevada and UNLV. Next to the outright or shared scenario of each team is where I’ve placed the Barttorvik title odds. 

UTAH STATE

Remaining Games

• @ San Jose State
• vs New Mexico

Outright Title (34.9% Chance)

• Utah State wins out AND Boise State loses to either Nevada or San Diego State

Shared Title (81.3% Chance)

• Utah State wins out AND Boise State wins out
• Utah State loses to either SJSU or New Mexico AND Boise State loses to either Nevada or San Diego State
• Utah State loses to either SJSU or New Mexico AND Boise State loses to both Nevada, San Diego State AND either Nevada, San Diego State also beat UNLV (making either go 2-0)

Utah State has controlled its own destiny for virtually all of conference play and will continue to do so unless the Aggies manage to lose at San Jose State. A loss would make it necessary for USU to defeat New Mexico as at that point there’d be no way for the Aggies to go 0-2 and still claim a share of the title. And at that point they’d need help from Boise State’s opponents as the Broncos would have to lose one or both of their finals games as well. Any loss by BSU guarantees at least a share of the title for Utah State so long as the Aggies don’t go 0-2.

Theoretically, just based off win/loss totals it could work, but not in reality due to which teams are facing which. If Utah State went 0-2, it’d need Boise State to go 0-2 and for Nevada, San Diego State and UNLV to all go 1-1 or worse. But with all four of those teams playing each other, it’s impossible for that specific record scenario to play out.

BOISE STATE

Remaining Games

• vs Nevada
• @ San Diego State

Outright Title Scenarios (12.8% Chance)

• Boise State wins out AND Utah State loses against either SJSU or New Mexico
• Boise State loses to Nevada and beats San Diego State AND Nevada loses to UNLV AND San Diego State beats UNLV AND Utah State loses to both SJSU, New Mexico
• Boise State beats Nevada and loses to San Diego State AND Nevada beats UNLV AND San Diego State loses to UNLV AND Utah State loses to both SJSU, New Mexico

Shared Title Scenarios (52.2% Chance)

• Boise State wins out AND Utah State wins out
• Boise State loses to either Nevada or San Diego State AND Utah State loses to either SJSU or New Mexico
• Boise State loses to either Nevada or San Diego State AND Utah State loses to both SJSU, New Mexico AND any of Nevada, San Diego State, UNLV go 2-0

Boise State’s title odds essentially mirror Utah State’s. Win out, and there’s a share of the title guaranteed. If USU loses one game, the Broncos also only have to win one of two to claim at least a share. And, just like Utah State, it’s theoretically possible on a win/loss basis for Boise State to go 0-2 and still get a share, but not practically so. There’s no combination that allows for the Broncos to lose to both Nevada and San Diego State and have the Wolf Pack, Aztecs and UNLV all go 1-1 or worse on the week which would be required for BSU to still be tied for first.

SAN DIEGO STATE

Remaining Games

Outright Title (0.3% Chance)

• San Diego State wins out AND Utah State loses to both SJSU and New Mexico AND Nevada beats Boise State (making BSU go 0-2) AND UNLV beats Nevada (making both go 1-1)

Shared Title (22.3% Chance)

• San Diego State wins out (forcing Boise State to go 1-1 at best) AND Utah State loses to either SJSU or New Mexico

SDSU is in pretty much the same situation as Nevada but with a slightly different favor. The same complication with Boise State is there. And if SDSU lost to UNLV, they’d need Boise State to go 0-2 (so would USU, but they aren’t interconnected here, the Aggies could hold up their part) which would require Nevada to beat the Broncos. But to avoid Nevada going 2-0 (which would keep SDSU out of a shared title), the Wolf Pack would need to lose to UNLV, which would mean the Rebels go 2-0.

NEVADA

Remaining Games

Outright Title Scenario (14.0% Chance)

• Nevada wins out AND Boise State loses to San Diego State (so BSU goes 0-2) AND San Diego State loses at UNLV (so that both both go 1-1) AND Utah State loses to both SJSU and New Mexico

Shared Title Scenarios (0.6% Chance)

• Nevada wins out (ensuring Boise State goes at best 1-1) AND Utah State loses to either SJSU and New Mexico

It can get more complicated with just how many ties there can be depending on what San Diego State and UNLV do, but any shared or outright title scenario for Nevada involves the Wolf Pack winning out and Utah State picking up one or two losses this week. If Utah State goes 2-0, it’s over. If Boise State goes 2-0, it’s over. If Nevada loses either game (even if it beats Boise State in the first one), it’s over. There’s no combination of wins and losses of the actual games to allow the Wolf Pack to lose and still have all of the other teams also win or lose the required amount of games, mainly because Boise State would have to go 0-2 and Nevada plays the Broncos this week. BSU would have to go 0-2 in any scenario the Wolf Pack go 1-1 so a loss by Nevada to the Broncos ends that. And if Nevada beats Boise State, but loses to UNLV, it doesn’t work. The reason for that is because UNLV would then have to lose to San Diego State, but the Aztecs also have to beat Boise State which would make SDSU 2-0 and thus outpace Nevada for the title.

UNLV

Remaining Games

• vs San Diego State
• @ Nevada

Outright Title (0.3% Chance)

• UNLV wins out AND Utah State loses to both SJSU, New Mexico AND Boise State loses to both Nevada, San Diego State

Shared Title (4.9% Chance)

• UNLV wins out AND Utah State loses to either SJSU or New Mexico AND Boise State loses to either Nevada or San Diego State
• UNLV wins out AND Utah State loses to either SJSU or New Mexico AND Boise State loses to both Nevada, San Diego State
• UNLV wins out AND Utah State loses to both SJSU, New Mexico AND Boise State loses to either Nevada or San Diego State

Like both San Diego State and Nevada, any hopes at a shared or outright title for UNLV depend on the Rebels winning out. An outright title is dang near impossible, mostly because it requires both Utah State and Boise State to go 0-2, but a shared title is probably a lot more hopeful for UNLV. It still requires beating two very tough teams, but the odds that both Boise State and Utah State pick up at least one loss are decently high. The Rebels can take some solace in that they don’t need miracle help and that most of the hard work can be done by them.