Max Shulga. Photo by Lorene Hale
LOGAN — Utah State is one of seven undefeated men’s basketball teams in Division I and moved up to 12 in the latest NCAA NET rankings. Three of those unbeaten teams make up the top three of the AP and Coaches polls – Purdue, Virginia and UConn – with Mississippi State coming in at No. 17 in the AP Poll and No. 20 in the Coaches Poll. The Aggies (alongside fellow undefeated Mountain West teams UNLV and New Mexico) remain in the “others receiving votes” category.
It’s been a struggle for USU to receive recognition for its success despite being on the cusp of setting a program record for best start to a basketball season. A few weeks back the Aggies made their AP Poll debut by getting one 25th-place vote from Brian Holland of WVLA-TV/WGMB-TV (Louisiana) in the Week 3 poll published on Nov. 21. But despite defeating Oral Roberts the day after the poll released and not losing a game going into the Thanksgiving day break, Holland took the Aggies off his ballot and has yet to put them back on.
Three weeks later in the Week 6 poll published on Monday, the Aggies finally found their way onto a couple ballots. Todd Golden of CNHI Sports (Indiana) and David Jones of The Patriots-News (Pennsylvania) ranked Utah State 23rd and 25th, respectively. The four points from those two votes put USU at 42nd based off the AP Poll points. In the Coaches Poll, the Aggies also got four points (from voters unknown) which put them at 39th in that poll.
If you go based off of various computer ranking metrics, neither 42nd overall ranking by the AP Poll, nor the 39th of the Coaches Poll aren’t out of place. KenPom places the Aggies at 41st and Haslemetrics puts them at 43rd. An average of nine prominent computer rankings including KenPom, Haslemetrics, ESPN’s BPI and others puts Utah State at an average of about 38, pretty much where the AP or Coaches Poll have them.
This week’s average ranks for Mountain West teams. Utah State is still closing in on SDSU even though the Aggies fell in multiple metrics. UNLV jumped New Mexico for fourth-best in the MW. And the low end of the conference made big leaps. pic.twitter.com/AdMeI8XJ0O
— Jason Walker (@jwalker_sports) December 12, 2022
If the voters are referencing these computer rankings as part of their voting process that somewhat explains the exclusion of Utah State from the AP Top 25 and Coaches Poll Top 25. But it doesn’t explain why voters are now favoring UNLV and New Mexico over USU. Computer rankings invariably favor the Aggies over the Rebels and Lobos and yet the latter two received more points in both polls.
The reason behind voter’s favoritism for UNLV and New Mexico over Utah State comes right back to its lighter schedule. While the Aggies have not played many bottom-feeders of Division I, the lack of marquee wins for them are holding back their ranking potential. Utah State’s best win according to the NET rankings is Oral Roberts (64th) followed closely by Bradley (71st). Neither of those games hold much sway with AP voters.
Meanwhile, looking at UNLV and New Mexico, both teams have been able to catch the eye of voters despite computer rankings having them much lower than the Aggies. The Rebels beat Dayton (then ranked 21st by the AP) and the Lobos downed Saint Mary’s on the road, notable names that voters respect. It’s why UNLV got 27 points in the poll (31st) and New Mexico got 12 points (38th).
It’s a very real part of AP voting that big wins catch eyes. Eventually, an undefeated record will catch voters’ eyes, but it would take 12 or 13 wins without a loss for the Aggies to convince enough voters to land themselves a place in the Top 25 and not be on the outside looking in.
