Utah State’s college football season begins this week with its home opener against Idaho State on Merlin Olsen Field. With months of anticipation, analysis, and waiting soon to be in the rearview mirror, there’s only a little time left to cement our (certain to be wrong) preseason predictions for Utah State football.
These predictions come from Full Court Press co-hosts Eric Frandsen and Jason Walker. We’ll give a win/loss prediction for each of the 12 regular-season games, including a prediction on who the Aggies will play in the flex game and whether they’ll win against the chosen opponent.
In addition to predicting a win or loss, we’ll also offer a scaling descriptor on how close that win or loss will be. Three tiers of win or loss: a blowout, decisive, or close. This isn’t meant to be an exact score prediction, mainly a way to offer more insight as to how we feel about each of these games.
So, here we go.
Game 1 – vs Idaho State
- Date: Sept. 5 (Sat)
- Location: Merlin Olsen Field (Logan, UT)
- Kickoff Time: 5 p.m.
Jason’s Prediction: Decisive Win by Utah State
There are hints of this game potentially being a close one. Idaho State returns a lot of offensive production from last year and has pushed several FBS teams to the brink in recent seasons. Bill Connelly’s SP+ ranking puts the Bengals 24th in FCS and 153rd among all college football teams regardless of division. And the betting spread for this game is only -13.5 at the time of publishing.
For those reasons, it’s less enticing to predict an all-out blowout by Utah State. But it’s still worth remembering that this is an FBS vs FCS matchup and that the Aggies have a 19-2 record over the Bengals. Plus, since the start of the Gary Andersen (1.0) era, the closest margin across four Utah State/Idaho State games is 20 points. The most recent matchup was a 78-28 massacre by the Aggies, and it happened one week after Idaho State scared San Diego State in a narrow 36-28 loss to the Aztecs.
Eric’s Prediction: Blowout Win by Utah State
While questions abound about what this Utah State football team will actually look like in 2026 (largely due to a lack of access to see this team in action on the field with no open practices or scrimmages), I believe the Aggies should still take care of Idaho State for their home and season opener in Logan. Idaho State features a pass-happy offense with some speedy wide receivers, but I like what USU has done to add depth and versatility to its defensive secondary.
Some of the biggest questions surrounding USU this season focus on the team’s offense. I’m not sure this Saturday’s game totally answers those questions, but one thing is clear about Idaho State: they struggle defensively. I think this game might feel close early on, but eventually the Aggies pull away and win this one going away, providing Utah State’s first (and perhaps only) blowout of the season.
ESPN Matchup Predictor: Utah State win (88.3%)
Game 2 – @ Washington
- Date: Sept. 12 (Sat)
- Location: Husky Stadium (Seattle, WA)
- Kickoff Time: 1:30 p.m.
JASON’S PREDICTION: Blowout Win by Washington
This game looks like it will shape up similarly to Utah State’s losses to Vanderbilt and Texas A&M last year. Washington has a great quarterback who is a dual-threat weapon leading an offense projected to be in the top 25 in all of college football. By season’s end, this week will probably be the one in which Utah State gives up the most points.
The main question will likely be whether USU’s offense puts up a similar fight as it did in the aforementioned games at Vanderbilt and Texas A&M. If so, the designation of this as a blowout may not be as fitting, since the Aggies lost those two games by 20 and 22 points, respectively. Decisive losses, but debatable as to whether they count as blowouts. The problem is that the Aggies’ offense isn’t likely to be a top-40 scoring offense again this season, which is what they’d need to put up a fight against the Huskies.
ERIC’S PREDICTION: Decisive Win by Washington
Utah State’s first road game of the season will be against arguably the best team it will face all year. The Huskies also feature one of the nation’s top quarterbacks. Even though Demond Williams Jr. tried to leave the team in January – creating unsettling feelings in the community and among teammates – he is a talented dual-threat QB. This is where we find out if USU’s defensive gains in the back half of last season spill over into this season, or if they’ll be overwhelmed by a high-powered Washington offense.
The Huskies’ defense is equally dynamic, with a strong linebacker corps. USU showed grit and signs they were not intimidated by ranked P4 teams last year when they faced Texas A&M and Vanderbilt, but did struggle to maintain equal footing. I think USU will be competitive, but ultimately Washington wins the game decisively.
ESPN Matchup Predictor: Washington Win (91.2%)
Game 3 – @ Utah
- Date: Sept. 19 (Sat)
- Location: Rice-Eccles Stadium (Salt Lake City, UT)
- Kickoff Time: 1:30 p.m.
JASON’S PREDICTION: Decisive Win by Utah
Utah is in an interesting position that could leave them vulnerable to a surprisingly competitive game from Utah State. The Utes have a new, largely unproven, head coach. A decent chunk of its promising talent for 2026 transferred to Michigan following Kyle Whittingham. And if my first two game predictions end up being accurate, the Aggies will be coming off a less-than-impressive win over Idaho State and a blowout loss at Washington.
That looks like a trap game if ever I’ve seen one.
There’s a very real chance that this game looks similar to the 2024 meeting, which Utah State led 14-3 early in the second quarter and 14-10 at halftime. Utah got its stuff together in the second half to win 38-20, but that was against the eventual 4-8 Aggies. This year’s USU squad looks to be stronger, and while this game won’t be on Merlin Olsen Field, the rivalry feeling from the visitors will still give them a boost. The Utes could also be overrated. Preseason rankings have them in the top 25, but most of that is done off the back of Kyle Whittingham’s record of success. He’s gone, and that’s opened the door to some uncomfortable questions about being overrated.
Will all of it culminate in an upset by the Aggies? Probably not. Will it lead to a thrilling finish where Utah State suffers a valiant defeat? Also, probably not. I said this game will look like 2024 ,and I think that’s a good roadmap. Utah might have its sloppy moments, and Utah State will threaten for a little bit. But, in the end, the Utes will have a multi-possession advantage on the scoreboard by the time the final whistle blows.
ERIC’S PREDICTION: Decisive Win by Utah
It’s a back-to-back game for USU facing a preseason ranked P4 team on the road and a dynamic dual-threat quarterback. Oh yeah, and it’s the renewal of an historic rivalry! While Bronco Mendenhall and his staff are extremely familiar with coaching games at Rice-Eccles Stadium, no USU players really have any experience against the Utes. There are a number of unknowns for Utah, as well. At this point, we’re not entirely sure how Morgan Scalley will be as a head coach of the Utes and if Utah will be able to maintain the same level of success they enjoyed under Kyle Whittingham.
Devon Dampier and Byrd Ficklin are two dynamic quarterbacks, and Aggie fans know what Utah’s new offensive coordinator is capable of. Kevin McGiven engineered some creative offensive schemes with a somewhat limited Bryson Barnes last year. With Dampier and USU transfer Braden Pegan, the Utah offense could be quite potent. But like my prediction for the Washington game, I believe USU will play gritty and won’t back down from a powerful P4 opponent. That being said, it will still be a decisive win by the Utes; not a blowout, but a decisive win.
ESPN Matchup Predictor: Utah Win (89.1%)
Game 4 – vs Troy
- Date: Sept. 26 (Sat)
- Location: Merlin Olsen Field (Logan, UT)
- Kickoff Time: 5:30 p.m.
JASON’S PREDICTION: Close Win by Utah State
A relevant stat I pointed out in my preseason preview of Troy is that the Aggies have lost just one home non-conference game against a current Group of Six team since 2012. And that lone loss was to Curt Cignetti’s 11-2 James Madison team. Utah State usually takes care of business in these home non-conference games against fellow G6 opponents.
Troy isn’t going to make things easy for Utah State, though. The Trojans are coming off a season where they made it to the Sun Belt title game, and expectations are high for them to make it back to championship weekend. But, in the end, despite being a favorite to be near the top of the Sun Belt, Troy is very similarly ranked to the Aggies. And in a game of similarly ranked opponents, you lean toward the home team.
ERIC’S PREDICTION: Close Win by Utah State
After two tough road contests, USU will be ready for a game on their own turf. Homecoming for Utah State won’t be easy. Troy is a solid G6 program and could be in the running for the Sun Belt championship game again this season.
But after two tough games on the road against P4 programs, Utah State will be primed to face an opponent of somewhat equal stature. If this game were to be played at Troy, I’d give the Trojans the edge. But since it is in Logan and Homecoming, I believe the Aggies get the win in a close one.
ESPN Matchup Predictor: Utah State Win (62.7%)
Game 5 – @ Boise State
- Date: Oct. 3 (Sat)
- Location: Albertsons Stadium (Boise, ID)
- Kickoff Time: 5:30 p.m.
JASON’S PREDICTION: Decisive Win by Boise State
Whatever it is about this game, Utah State just can’t seem to get over the hump against Boise State. It’s going to happen at some point, and heaven knows it’ll probably be as much of a surprise as when the Aggies won in 2015, their most recent win over the Broncos.
Just as much as other predictions for me are based on location, home or away, a big part of my inability to predict an Aggie victory is that this game is being played on the unsightly turf north of the border. Utah State has won just twice in Boise against the Broncos, and only once since Boise State moved to FBS. And that was all the way back in 1996, a year in which the Broncos went 2-10.
It could always be the year. But I’m not expecting it this particular year.
ERIC’S PREDICTION: Decisive Win by Boise State
In the modern era, wins by Utah State in Boise have been elusive, even in USU’s best years. Unfortunately, I don’t see this year being anything different. The Aggies proved last year they can put the Broncos on the ropes, but this game will be in Boise, and I believe their quarterback Maddux Madsen will be an improved playmaker with more reliable running backs at his side.
The Boise State defense also looks to be stout, particularly on the defensive line. Which could pose some real problems for McCae Hillstead. The Broncos are gunning to be the top team from the Group of 6 to make the College Football Playoff, so they will be looking for every opportunity to create distance between themselves and their opponents. The game may appear to be decided, but the Broncos will likely try to add style points.
ESPN Matchup Predictor: Boise State (83.3%)
Game 6 – vs Washington State
- Date: Oct. 9 (Fri)
- Location: Merlin Olsen Field (Logan, UT)
- Kickoff Time: 7 p.m.
JASON’S PREDICTION: Close Win by Washington State
This is more of a hunch pick than a data-driven pick. By the measuring tools I used for all my other picks, this should be a close win for Utah State rather than a loss. There’s also the new head coach and a ton of roster turnover. But I couldn’t help but feel that the Aggies are going to find a way to lose one of these winnable home games, and this was the option I picked.
One of the main reasons, logically, to justify this as a predicted loss is that Utah State will be on the tail end of a tough five-game opening slate. The Aggies will have played Washington, Utah and Boise State in a four-week span, with a tough match against Troy to boot. This will probably be the most vulnerable the Aggies will be all year, physically speaking. That could open the door for the Cougars to steal a win on Merlin Olsen Field. Though, it should be noted that Washington State might not be faring any better as it will have faced Washington, Kansas State, Arizona and Fresno State in its first five weeks of the season with no breaks.
ERIC’S PREDICTION: Close Win by Utah State
No, the Aggies didn’t particularly look great against the Cougars the last time they faced them (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl last year), but this is a completely different Washington State team. They experienced one of the largest roster turnovers in all of college football and have a brand new head coach, one of the youngest in all of college football.
Both teams come into this contest after pretty brutal schedules. The fact this game gets played in Logan on a Friday night means the Aggies get some extra energy from the HURD and the hometown fans. Washington State has a proud history of nearly always being competitive, so it won’t be easy for USU. With so much roster uncertainty and inexperience on the coaching sidelines for Wazzu, I give the Aggies the edge in what I believe will be a close contest.
ESPN Matchup Predictor: Washington State (51.2%)
Game 7 – @ Texas State
- Date: Oct. 24 (Sat)
- Location: UFCU Stadium (San Marcos, TX)
- Kickoff Time: 5:30 p.m.
JASON’S PREDICTION: Close Win by Utah State
By my estimation, this could be the most exciting game of the season for the fans who love high-scoring games. Texas State is bringing a high-powered offense to the Pac-12, but a not-as-stellar defense. If the Bobcats manage to patch up said defense, the Aggies could be in trouble for this road game. As things currently stand, this game looks like it could easily see both teams cross the 35-point threshold and likely see the winner be the first to 40 points.
ERIC’S PREDICTION: Close Win by Utah State
The Aggies come into this game after a much-needed bye week. In fact, were it not for that break, I believe the Aggies would have a much tougher time in San Marcos, Texas. The Bobcats will present one of, if not the most, prolific offenses USU will face all season. They have an experienced coach, a great quarterback, and multiple wide receivers who routinely rack up tons of yards.
The biggest question for Texas State is their defense. They struggled to limit opponents last year in the Sun Belt, and this will be their first year in the Pac-12, facing bigger and more physical teams every week. Utah State’s strength this season is their defense, so this will be a classic strength-vs-strength matchup. Given the fact USU will have extra time to prepare – and heal – I give the Aggies the slight edge in what I believe will be an exciting contest.
ESPN Matchup Predictor: Texas State (63.0%)
Game 8 – vs Colorado State
- Date: Oct. 31 (Sat)
- Location: Merlin Olsen Field (Logan, UT)
- Kickoff Time: 1:30 p.m.
JASON’S PREDICTION: Decisive Win by Utah State
This is one of only two decisive wins I have among my predictions. The Rams are one of the weakest teams on Utah State’s schedule, at least on paper. And while Jim Mora has a solid reputation from his recent rebuild of the UConn football program, it seems unlikely he’ll turn Colorado State into a team that’s capable of taking down the Aggies on Merlin Olsen Field.
ERIC’S PREDICTION: Decisive Win by Utah State
Colorado State has struggled to find consistency and relevance with their head coaches for nearly two decades now. The university has consistently hired flashy assistant coaches or existing head coaches with questionable track records of success. Jim Mora Jr. took a UConn team from complete obscurity to regularly producing successful seasons. Can he work that same magic in Fort Collins? That remains to be seen, but if he does it won’t be this season.
In addition to Colorado State’s complete program uncertainty with a new head coach trying to implement his system, Utah State is beginning its stretch of games when the team starts to hit its stride. Last season it was just after the midway point when the players, particularly on defense, starting big improvements in their efficiency and effectiveness against their opponents. I predict USU wins this game decisively.
ESPN Matchup Predictor: Utah State (72.5%)
Game 9 – vs Fresno State
- Date: Nov. 7
- Location: Merlin Olsen Field (Logan, UT)
- Kickoff Time: 7:30 p.m.
JASON’S PREDICTION: Close Win by Utah State
Utah State getting a win over the Bulldogs last year plays a bit of a part in my prediction for this year. But also the fact that Fresno State doesn’t look to be fixing their offensive issues any time soon. Their QB play doesn’t impress me, and the lack of explosives on offense overall is concerning. The defense does look really solid, though. Which means that this should be a close game, much like it was last year.
ERIC’S PREDICTION: Close Win by Fresno State
Yes, the Aggies beat the Bulldogs last year in Fresno, and that was done by and large due to a Herculean effort by Bryson Barnes. The Aggie defense also played very well in their matchup last year, but my biggest concern about this one is USU’s offense.
Based on my predictions, USU comes into this game on a three-game winning streak, but those wins would have come against subpar defensive teams. Fresno will pose a very different challenge. Fresno has legitimate questions about who their quarterback will be and how efficient they’ll be on offense, but that defense will give the Aggies challenges. It will be a close contest, but in the end Fresno State avenges their 2025 loss to USU.
ESPN Matchup Predictor: Fresno State (56.1%)
Game 10 – @ San Diego State
- Date: Nov. 14
- Location: Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego, CA)
- Kickoff Time: 7:30 p.m.
JASON’S PREDICTION: Decisive Win by San Diego State
There’s room for this to go from a game that’s penciled in as a loss in the preseason to a potentially much closer matchup once the tail end of the year rolls around. San Diego State lost a lot on defense, the thing that made it one of the best teams in the Mountain West last year. Will that still be around in 2026? If not, maybe we’re looking at a different kind of game in November.
However, I still think there will be enough holdover on defense to be among the best (if not the actual best) defenses in the Pac-12. Combine that with a potential breakout year for an offense led by Lucky Sutton and a returning QB Jayden Denegal, and you end up with a really good SDSU squad. One that I doubt Utah State will be capable of defeating on the road.
ERIC’S PREDICTION: Close Win by San Diego State
In back-to-back weeks, the Aggies will be facing a tough Pac-12 defense. The Aztecs lost A LOT of their defensive studs last year to graduation or the NFL, but they have an absolute standard of excellence on the defensive side of the ball. Speaking of defense, the Aggies will have their hands full with likely Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year Lucky Sutton. He’s a dynamic running back who poses big-play threats every time he touches the ball. SDSU also benefits from another year of quarterback Jayden Denegal under offensive-minded head coach Sean Lewis.
ESPN Matchup Predictor: San Diego State (81.2%)
Game 11 – @ Oregon State
- Date: Nov. 21
- Location: Reser Stadium (Corvallis, OR)
- Kickoff Time: 8:30 p.m.
JASON’S PREDICTION: Close Win by Utah State
This prediction is essentially a counter to my prediction for the Washington State game. Where other predictive methods based on preseason rankings and computer metrics tend to slightly favor the home Oregon State team, I believe that Utah State will be able to come away with a win here. It will be a difficult battle, especially if the Beavers have any sort of bounce-back from their 2-10 season last year. But there should be enough.
This being a road game makes it a bit difficult to predict a win, especially if Oregon State has any sort of bounce-back from a 2-10 season last year. The Aggies have struggled to get positive results on the road in the last half-decade
ERIC’S PREDICTION: Decisive Win by Utah State
Oregon State only won two games last year. They were bad. They have a new coach and a lot of new players, but it is extremely rare to make that big of a leap in a first-year head coach’s first season. The Aggies will be coming off two straight losses and will be hungry to put a win on a legacy Pac-12 team.
And as mentioned before, last season’s Aggie team got better and better on defense as the season went on. And I think USU’s offense will also be primed to execute against a team that is not as stout as the Aggies’ previous two opponents. I like USU’s chances against a program that will still be trying to get out from under the specter of last season.
ESPN Matchup Predictor: Oregon State (53.3%)
Game 12 – Flex Opponent
- Date: Nov. 28
- Location: Merlin Olsen Field (Logan, UT)
- Kickoff Time: TBD
For proper context, Utah State’s Week 13 opponent in its regular season finale is not set. Tentatively, the stated projected matchup is with Boise State, though it is subject to change. The Aggies are guaranteed to play at home, as are Colorado State, Fresno State and Washington State — which eliminates the possibility of USU playing any of those three teams. The other possible opponents are Texas State, San Diego State and Oregon State.
JASON’S PREDICTION: Close win vs TEXAS STATE
Trying to predict how the flex schedule will shake out is tricky because it requires figuring out the logical through-line that the conference decision-makers are using. Unless Utah State has a breakout campaign (and looking back at my predictions, I certainly don’t think that’s happening in 2026), matching them up with Boise State in Week 13 only feels right if the plan is to protect the Broncos’ record (presuming they live up to their status as the preseason favorite). Boise State will likely be in a fight to make the College Football Playoff and might want to bolster their ranking by giving it a tougher opponent, likely Fresno State or Washington State. But the Pac-12 may opt to leave this matchup as projected and give the Broncos a theoretically easier win to protect their record by letting them play a team they’ve lost to once this century.
Ultimately, I’m opting to believe the Pac-12 will send Boise State elsewhere and will pit Utah State against Texas State. I expect the first meeting to be an exciting one, and there will be an appetite for a rematch. Both teams will also probably be fighting for bowl eligibility, making for an even more thrilling contest with real stakes on both sides.
ERIC’S PREDICTION: Close Win vs TEXAS STATE
There are a lot of things for the Pac-12 to consider when finalizing the match-ups for the last week of the regular season. I believe Boise State will be in the best position to make the College Football Playoff, and the conference will try to engineer the best possible situation for the Broncos (to either secure a win or improve its strength-of-schedule argument).
For this reason, I think the conference will be looking at Utah State as a team to improve its bowl game situation and pit them against Texas State. For all the reasons I detailed earlier, this could be another close, great game between the Pac-12 newcomers. Although the Aggies will not have the benefit of a bye week to prepare for the Bobcats, having this game played in Logan in late November will pay big dividends and assist USU in achieving a close win.
Jason’s Overall Record Prediction: 7-5
Eric’s Overall Record Prediction: 7-5
