One of the most interesting thoughts from over the weekend has been this question: Can Utah State be a contender in the Mountain West this season? It might seem like a crazy idea home to only the minds of Aggie fans. But it’s one that will likely have to be reckoned with by a lot of fans from other MW teams that wrote off USU as being in a full-on rebuild year.
The thing that puts nuance into this question is that the Aggies starting 3-1 isn’t all that surprising. My own preseason preview series predicted Utah State would be 3-1 by this point in the season, saying they’d have close wins over UTEP and Air Force, a blowout loss to Texas A&M and a blowout win over McNeese. I wasn’t exactly off by all that much in those assertions, save for nitpicking the fact the Aggies winning by 19 against Air Force probably doesn’t fall within definitions of “close.”
And yet, my own preseason predictions as a whole put the Aggies at around 6-6, maybe 7-5 or 5-7 depending on whether they were lucky or unlucky in some 50/50 games.
So what’s changed? The Aggies are meeting the most basic of slightly optimistic predictions and now suddenly they’re looking like conference contenders?
Well, the Mountain West has changed. In particular, many of Utah State’s upcoming opponents don’t look nearly as tough, especially relative to the improvements the Aggies have made to their preseason rankings. The Aggies have gone up, while many of their MW peers have gone down or changed very little.
Based on four preseason computer rankings (ESPN FPI, SP+, KFord and FEI), Utah State ranked, on average, 105.3, with the highest coming from ESPN’s FPI which had it at 97th. Now, in late September, the Aggies average 81.3 across those three of those rankings (FEI hasn’t updated through Week 4 as of publishing). That’s a jump of 23.9 spots, which is the highest in the Mountain West (though not by much with New Mexico and SDSU seeing similar jumps).
Mountain West Preseason vs Current Average Computer Ranks
| Team | Preseason Avg Rk | Current Avg Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State | 55.0 | 56.3 | -1.3 |
| Fresno State | 78.3 | 69.7 | +8.6 |
| UNLV | 65.8 | 73.3 | -7.6 |
| Utah State | 105.3 | 81.3 | +23.9 |
| San Diego State | 109.0 | 87.3 | +21.7 |
| Colorado State | 101.8 | 95.7 | +6.1 |
| New Mexico | 116.5 | 96.3 | +20.2 |
| Air Force | 91.3 | 100.7 | -9.4 |
| Wyoming | 100.3 | 101.3 | -1.1 |
| Hawaii | 107.3 | 104.7 | +2.6 |
| San Jose State | 101.8 | 105.3 | -3.6 |
| Nevada | 118.3 | 125.7 | -7.4 |
Upcoming games against Hawaii, San Jose State and Nevada are all relatively much easier on paper. KFord predictions has the Aggies favored in each of their next four conference games. Utah State has 73% or greater odds in both the SJSU and Nevada games by those same analytics, being one-possession favorites against Hawaii (53% odds of winning) and New Mexico (a hair over 50% odds).
If Utah State takes care of business against the Spartans and Wolf Pack, and then manages to win a couple of coin flip games on the road, that would put the Aggies at 7-2 (we’re presuming a loss to Vanderbilt in this scenario) going into a Nov. 15 matchup with UNLV in Allegiant Stadium. That would end up being a game with heavy Mountain West title game implications, as would follow-up games at Fresno State on Nov. 22 and the season finale against Boise State at home on Nov. 28. Even if Utah State drops one of those two games at Hawaii, they’d be 6-3 heading into that final stretch with a chance to cause some real chaos and maybe get lucky enough to slide into one of the two championship slots.
All of this speculation is officially in way-too-soon and overreaction territory, which isn’t supposed to be the realm of the Monday Cooldown. But that’s what the overperforming of Utah State and the relative underperforming of the Mountain West has created. The perceived gap between the Aggies and contention is no longer a gaping chasm. Per ESPN’s FPI, back during the summer, USU’s odds of winning the Mountain West Conference sat at just 0.4%. As of today, those odds are 7.1%, the fourth-best in the conference behind just Boise State (38.3%), UNLV (28.1%) and Fresno State (15.8%).
A massive part of Utah State overperforming its preseason rankings comes from the play of Bryson Barnes. He’s putting up career stats, with 12-game projections based on his four games so far adding up to a potential 2,946 passing yards and 591 rushing yards with 24 passing touchdowns, 18 rushing TDs. There’s a lot of new USU records that would be tied up with putting those kind of stats in the books, let alone what he might do if he played 13 (or even 14) games with that kind of pace.
This year has just been a different level of Barnes compared to what he’d done previously with Utah and last year with USU. Easily the biggest area where Barnes has shown a significant difference is his passing, especially on downfield throws. Last year, Barnes ranked 131st in NFL passer rating on throws that travelled at least 20 yards (minimum 20 attempts), having completed just 8 of his 22 attempts for zero touchdowns and four interceptions. His years at Utah were little different, though he did at least manage a positive TD-to-INT ratio.
You can expand the scope of Barnes’ downfield passing and see improvements with both his confidence and accuracy of all throws beyond even 10 yards downfield. Pre-2025, Barnes threw just 31.8 percent of his passes more than 10 yards down the field, completing 44.9% of those with a 13/13 TD-INT ratio and 10.6 yards per attempt. This year he’s up to 40.7% of his throws beyond that 10-yard distance with a drastically improved completion percentage of 54.5%, a 6/1 TD-INT ratio and 13.6 yards per attempt.
We saw both the good and the bad of Barnes’ deep passing against McNeese. His lack of upper-tier accuracy is apparent on some of these throws, though he showed improvement as the game went on. His interception showcased something he’s shown previously where he struggled to fit the ball into the correct window. Barnes overthrew this pass, but in this case he’s supposed to air on sending it long because in cases like this the worst that’s supposed to happen is it sails over the receiver. But Barnes didn’t lead Pegan enough over the middle and that put the ball in harm’s way.
Barnes had a similar issue on a throw with roughly five minutes to go in the second quarter, where the ball drifted away from its intended window and nearly resulted in a second interception.
This is the bad version of Barnes that has been seen over the years, a QB with downfield accuracy issues. But as the numbers show, his accuracy is greatly increased dramatically when throwing down the field. Bronco Mendenhall even noted that as something of a surprise based on their offseason evaluations of Barnes.
“We knew he’d be a very capable runner,” Mendenhall said. “I would say what’s probably a pleasant surprise is the accuracy and the ability he has throwing the football and the number of different types of throws that he’s making.”
There are a couple of throws to highlight from the McNeese game, but one of his more impressive throws came from the Air Force game, where he made an on-the-run throw to Brady Boyd for a first down. It came at what could have been a critical moment, in a bad way, for Utah State. No completion on this play sets up 3rd & 10 and a likely punt in a game that was still 7-3. A lot might have gone differently momentum-wise had Barnes not completed his throw. But as it stood, the Aggies went up 14-3 at the end of the series this throw happened on. So let’s finally check it out.
It’s a perfectly placed ball where Barnes didn’t have a chance to set his feet. This is the among the “different types of throws” Mendenhall mentioned. It’s not a quick, easy throw or even a timed deep throw. Barnes had to pin the ball on a spot 25 yards down the field where only his receiver could catch it while not being in an ideal throwing position. And yet he did just that.
And against McNeese, he showed improved touch on his deep passes after a couple of early misses. He hit Pegan twice for well-placed throws. The second wasn’t perfect as Pegan had to go to ground after reeling it in, but any team will take a 50-yard completion.
Also, an honorable mention to Barnes and his toughness on this throw. He was targeting a guy, Kahanu Davis, open by 20 yards, but Barnes still put it relatively in stride while having to throw across his body and knowing that he was about to get plastered by a 285-pound defensive tackle.
There are a lot more difficult defenses to play the rest of the way, starting this week with what may be the best defense the Aggies will see all year, and Barnes will have to prove he can make things happen when the throwing windows get tighter and the defenders are bigger and faster. Even with that caveat, the early returns on the 2025 version of Barnes is that he’s in the top tier of quarterbacks in the Mountain West.
Mendenhall said it pretty well with this long response to a question regarding Barnes after the McNeese game.
“He’s exceptional in every way,” Mendenhall said. “I’ve had good quarterbacks. Taysom Hill, pretty good quarterback. Bryce Perkins, pretty good quarterback. Devin Dampier, pretty good quarterback. Bryson Barnes is a really good football player. That would have been reason enough to take the Utah State job if I knew Bryson truly who he was and how he is. He’s tough and he’s relentless in his preparation. He’s exceptional and is exactly what Utah State needs as a football program any era, any time as the leader and the style of play. He represents us perfectly well.”
Something that could have gone under the radar with Utah State’s defense in the McNeese game was how well the defensive line did at making plays. The DTs can end up with a reputation for having the job of just taking up space and letting linebackers clean things up. That’s not an unearned stereotype, but as Mendenhall noted after the game, the best defenders don’t just fill gaps.
“Good defensive players beat blocks and make tackles. Average defensive players stay in their gap and then don’t make the play,” Mendenhall said. “Both those guys, if they have that kind of production up front, that’s a really strong testament to them.”Utah State’s top two players in total tackles were both defensive linemen, Carson Tujague (11) and Tyree Morris (nine). You also had Naki Fahina getting five tackles and Gabriel Iniguez Jr. landing four.
Take a look at the following play. Tujague was subjected to a double-team on an inside run attempt from McNeese but held his ground and not only filled the run gap, he stuffed the run for a single yard. An unquestionable win for the defense on first down.
Later, in the second quarter, you had an all defensive tackle show with Fahina tossing his blocker aside and slowing up the runner until Morris got away from his guy so they could throw down the RB for another really short gain.
Due credit also needs to be given to linebackers and even safeties for causing chaos in the backfield. Here, Bobby Arnold slips around the blockers into the backfield to snag the running back. Morris, who one-arm pushed his man a two yards behind the line of scrimmage, helps Arnold complete the TFL.
So many players combined to cause problems in the backfield. And sure, it was an FCS team, that’s kind of to be expected. And yet, the Aggies gave up 14 points and 362 yards to Robert Morris last year, the yardage being higher than RMU’s season average that was mostly against FCS defense. They gave up 28 points and 424 yards to Idaho State the year before that and lost to Weber State 35-7 the season before that. This year, Utah State took an offense that ranked 15th in scoring offense and fifth in total yards per game and made them look like chumps. Seven total points, even with garbage time, for 239 total yards and 3.5 yards per play. Take out the two outliers, gains of 51 and 20, and that falls to 2.5 yards on average for 66 plays.
We’ll have to see where McNeese ends up by the end of the year to see if their early sample size of volume offense wasn’t a fluke, but Utah State made a statement with its defense, despite the caliber of opponent.
