Conference play will begin early for Utah State as its Week 3 opponent, Air Force, will kick things off for its Mountain West slate of games. Both the Aggies and Falcons are coming off rare seasons in which they didn’t make a bowl game. In fact, 2024 was the first (non-COVID) season in which neither Utah State or Air Force made a bowl game since 2006.
An early-season matchup between two rebuilding teams could help define which team manages to have a bounce-back year, or whether one stays in the cellar of the conference for another year (or, the third option of it being a matchup against contenders that no one is paying attention to yet).
This is the in-depth preseason preview of Utah State’s third opponent of the season, the Air Force Falcons.
Previous Opponent Previews
Game Info
- Game Day: Sept. 13
- Location: Merlin Olsen Field (Logan, UT)
- Kickoff Time: 7:45 p.m.
- TV Broadcast: FS1
Quick-Hit Info on Air Force
- Head Coach: Troy Calhoun (19th season at AFA, 135-89 record)
- 2024 Record: 5-7
- 2024 Offense Rank: 125th (18.9 points per game)
- 2024 Defense Rank: 48th (23.2 points allowed per game)
- Returning Production Rank — 85th
- Returning Starters — (8 offense, 5 defense)
- 2025 Preseason Average Ranking — 88.3
History of Utah State vs this opponent
- All-Time Series: Air Force leads 7-5
- Series During MW Era: Air Force leads 6-5
- First-Ever Meeting: Nov. 8, 1969 (Air Force won 38-13)
- Most Recent Meeting: Sept. 15, 2023 (Air Force won 39-21)
This series has been about as even as it gets, with the Falcons holding the slight edge overall and during the Mountain West era. Last time out it was a fairly easy victory at home, but a win by the Aggies this year would mean finishing the Mountain West era with a .500 record against one of the most consistent programs in the conference. In theory, playing this one at home should be a bonus as USU is 3-2 at home against Air Force with both of those losses coming in years where the Aggies won fewer than three games (2016 where USU went 3-9 and 2020 where it went 1-5).
Troy Calhoun has certainly appreciated the games played at Merlin Olsen Field between the Aggies and Falcons, telling 106.9 The FAN at Mountain West Media Days that in his mind “there’ve been some great football games,” in this series. He also added that “one of the neat things about that environment, it tends to be pretty spirited.”
This game should be another solid ballgame, one worthy of closing out the era of these two sides being conference foes.
Opposing Players to Watch
- Dylan Carson (RB)
- Kade Frew (RB)
- Cade Harris (WR)
- Payton Zdroik (DT)
- Blake Fletcher (LB)
- Daniel Grobe (DE)
The Falcons in 2024
Last year ended what was arguably the best three-season run in program history, one in which Air Force went 10-3, 10-3 and 9-4 from 2021 to 2023. Exclude the COVID season and you could add an 11-2 season to the front of that and call it a four-season span. The wheels just seemed to come off last year as Air Force started the year winless against FBS opponents in its first eight games (the only win being 21-6 over Merrimack).
The Falcons were essential a coin flip as to whether it would score more than once in a game during those first eight games and it all came down to a woeful run games. Given rushing the ball is just about all Air Force does, that was catastrophic. In good years, the Falcons would push 4,000 rushing yards in a season (sometimes eclipsing that number). Last year they ran for less than 2,700. They dropped from an average of 326.7 rushing yards per game in 2022 down to just 224.0 in 2024.
Curiously, the Falcons ended the year looking like a completely different team, winning each of their final four games of the season and finding a second wind offensively. They beat two decent teams, Fresno State and Oregon State, at home and then closed out the year by beating out two bottom-feeders in the conference, Nevada and San Diego State. The offense scored more points in those four games (117) than it had in the previous eight (107). The four-game winning streak never had the chance to make Air Force bowl eligible, but it saved the team from an otherwise completely inglorious and humiliating season.
2025 Season Prospects
So much of Air Force’s potential comes down to reviving the offense and finding a new spark. From 2021 to 2023, the Falcons benefitted from a series of consistent rushers and dynamic mobile quarterbacks that diced up defenses. Brad Roberts ran for 3,000 yards across two season with Haaziq Daniels and Zachar Larrier as great secondary rushers from the QB position (running back John Lee Eldridge also quietly 7.5 yards per rush over a three season span). But when their consistency was gone, the offense fell apart.
The Falcons don’t get the luxury of bringing in transfers. Who they have is who they had last year plus some true freshmen that aren’t likely to make a big year one impact. The lack of transfers is worsened by the fact that Air Force still has to deal with the transfer portal and NIL, but it’s only a one-way street.
“I do have to deal with NIL,” Calhoun said. “We don’t have it, but obviously a young man that walks in and says ‘Hey, somebody’s putting a little something in front of me here,’ — we do not have NIL, we do not take transfers. However, young men, young women in all of our sports are able to leave and transfer somewhere else.”
Most of last year’s running back room will return, led by their 2024 top rusher Dylan Carson (600 yards, five touchdowns) who will be joined by Owen Allen and Kade Frew. That trio combined for 1,139 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. They’ll probably have to double that total if this season is going to see a significant amount of success, though contributions from wide receiver Cade Harris (who ran for 279 yards and four touchdowns along with his 368 receiving yards) should bolster that.
Air Force’s QB room will be a massive question mark. Calhoun noted that the team has fewer than 30 snaps played total from all of its players in that room, consisting of Josh Johnson, Liam Szarka, Maguire Martin, Jackson King and Brody Fortunati. Johnson will likely lead the way as he at least made appearances last year, rushing the ball 14 times and throwing it 14 times as well for a combined 220 yards responsible for. He’s going to need to make much more of a splash than Quentin Hayes did last year as the signal-caller, both as a runner and occasional passer.
As for the defense, it has fewer improvements, but it also wasn’t as good as some of the raw numbers made it look last season. And there aren’t as many returning starters to have the continuity that can lead to the internal development Air Force relies on.
It’d be easy to say the Falcons were still great on the defensive side of the ball since they ranked 48th in points allowed per game and 40th in yards allowed per game. But a big reason for that comes from Air Force being second in the nation in average time of possession. A better frame of reference for AFA’s defense would be it ranking 92nd in yards allowed per play. Not great, though also not as completely awful as the offense was last year.
The strength of the defense will remain its front seven, as it has for a while. Three defensive linemen (Daniel Grobe, Payton Zdroik, Aidan Swartz) return along with inside linebacker Blake Fletcher. Zdroik should be of particular concern as he managed 3.0 sacks and seven TFLs from the typically stat-quiet nose guard position.
Air Force’s secondary brings a serious question mark. Four of the five top players in snaps from last year left with only Houston Hendrix as a returning starter. The saving grace could be Kyle Chen and Levi Brown, who both played more than 250 snaps last year and have a handful of FBS starts under their belts. Even with this, the inexperience the Falcons have at numerous positions could lead to struggles early on in the season. Calhoun himself noted this possibility.
“I could see probably a lot of similarities as far as when we start. Just because you’re gonna have so many new guys. Whether it’s on the back end of where you are defensively, certainly at quarterback,” Calhoun said.
Preseason Game Prediction — Close Win
Most optimistic Aggie fans will view this as a winnable game, and justifiably so given last year’s results for Air Force and the decent record at home against the Falcons. The main issue is that Air Force hasn’t really struggled much in years where they’ve needed to bounce back. After a 2-10 season in 2013 they went 10-3 the next year. Following a 3-3 campaign in the COVID year, they had three straight seasons of nine-plus wins. If the Falcons manage a quick turnaround, this will be a tough-as-nails game. But if things are more like last season, this could be a more comfortable home win for the Aggies.
It’ll be an interesting early-season matchup. Air Force has an early bye week after starting the season at home against an FCS team, Bucknell. The Aggies, meanwhile, will be returning from a trip to College Station, most likely having just lost to Texas A&M. That will give the Falcons a slight edge as they’ll get an extra week to catch up on Aggie film and see what Bronco Mendenhall’s new team is made of.
How much of a factor inexperience is — for both sides — will be another thing to watch. Each team has a lot of newcomers and multiple position groups that will be almost entirely new to playing regular FBS snaps.
The biggest benefit may very well be playing Air Force early in the season. Air Force will still not have a ton of film on the Aggies’ schemes and both sides will be on the same footing in terms of experience.
