Five of the 11 Mountain West men’s basketball teams will feature at some level in postseason tournament. Four — New Mexico, Utah State, San Diego State and Colorado State — will appear in the main event, the NCAA Tournament, with Boise State joining the 16-strong field of the inaugural College Basketball Crown and San Jose State going to the NIT.
For those rooting for the Mountain West, maybe don’t look at the numbers behind how well its done in recent years. Since 2016, MW schools are 4-15 in the first round. Even worse, the MW teams that earned double-digit seeds are 1-24 all-time in the first round, including 22 consecutive defeats. All four schools that made the NCAA Tournament have double-digit seeds. The numbers in the First Four aren’t much better as the Mountain West is 1-5 in Dayton, though perhaps the winds are shifting as the first victory came just last year when Colorado State defeated Virginia.
Here is a quick rundown on when, where and who each team is facing in their respective postseason runs, listed in chronological order.
NCAA Tournament Teams
San Diego State (11 seed)
- Opponent: 11-seed North Carolina
- Date/Time: Tuesday / 7:10 p.m.
- TV: TNT
- Venue: UD Arena / Dayton, OH
- KenPom Game Prediction: UNC wins 73-71
The Aztecs had to sweat a bit, though not for too long as they were announced as one of the First Four participants early on in the selection show. This marks the fifth consecutive appearance in the NCAA Tournament, and with a win on Tuesday it’d be the third straight in which SDSU has won a game in March Madness. Given the youth of Brian Dutcher’s team, being in the field is quite the accomplishment, as would getting a win, even if it’s just in Dayton.
San Diego State’s foe in this one is easily the most controversial selection for the NCAA Tournament as a whole. The Tar Heels, though a historic program, had an iffy resume that many felt was not as good as other programs, the most commonly cited being West Virginia. The Aztecs could make the job of the critical crowd a lot easier or much harder depending on how they end up faring against North Carolina.
Utah State (10 seed)
- Opponent: 7-seed UCLA
- Date/Time: Thursday / 7:25 p.m.
- TV: TNT
- Venue: Rupp Arena / Lexington, KY
- KenPom Game Prediction: UCLA wins 76-72
According to Keith Gill, the assistant chair of the selection committee, the Aggies narrowly avoided a trip to Dayton for the play-in thanks to Memphis downing UAB in the AAC conference title game. As things stand, Utah State made the field and secured the last bye spot. The reward is what will be a fourth meeting with UCLA in the Big Dance.
The Aggies are the biggest underdog of any Mountain West team in the tournament, with KenPom predicting a four-point loss and betting lines currently trending around 4-5 points in favor of the Bruins. It’s not a massive gap, but it displays the lack of confidence the college basketball world at large has in Utah State’s ability to perform in the NCAA Tournament. The same was true last year, though, with TCU being the betting favorite over the Aggies which was quite the opposite of what happened in reality.
Colorado State (12 seed)
- Opponent: 5-seed Memphis
- Date/Time: Friday / 12 p.m.
- TV: TBS
- Venue: Climate Pledge Arena / Seattle, WA
- KenPom Game Prediction: Memphis wins 74-73
The Rams got in via the automatic bid, and given how things went with Boise State, it’s pretty apparent Colorado State needed the auto-bid to make the field. But now that they’re in, the Rams can put to use the massive amount of momentum they’ve built over a 10-game winning streak. According to Haslametrics analytical model, Colorado State is literally the hottest team in America, leading Division I in Haslametrics’ momentum metric.
With that level of momentum, it doesn’t end up being the biggest surprise that the Rams are actually favored by some projections despite being a 12 seed. KenPom predicts a narrow Memphis victory, but the Rams are favored by a couple of points by bettors and other prediction metrics have CSU winning by their models (Haslametrics being one). Nique Clifford is playing at an All-American level right now, and while he won’t be taking home any notable end-of-season individual hardware, he can showcase his talent to the world (and NBA scouts) when all eyes will be on the tournament.
New Mexico (10 seed)
- Opponent: 7-seed Marquette
- Date/Time: Friday / 5:25 p.m.
- TV: TBS
- Venue: Rocket Arena / Cleveland, OH
- KenPom Game Prediction: Marquette wins 76-73
The regular season champion Lobos kind of limped to the finish line this season following a stellar month from mid-January to mid-February. Three losses in its final seven games set New Mexico back from what might have been a seven or eight seed. Still, a 10 seed is a step up from last season where the Lobos clawed their way in via an auto-bid but were given an 11 seed and a matchup with Clemson (which ended with a 77-56 loss).
New Mexico is obviously the underdog, but not by a wide margin. Marquette (23-10) had a rough end to the season as well, losing each of its last two games of the regular season and then falling in the second round of the Big East tournament. What won’t be too encouraging to Lobos fans is the fact that those three losses were against much higher ranked teams than who UNM lost to. Two of those losses were to St. John’s and the other was UConn. It means that of the last two weeks, New Mexico will be arguably Marquette’s easiest opponent.
This game should be an exciting, fast-paced affair. The Lobos like to push the tempo and Marquette, while only 154th in pace according the KenPom, do still rank 24th in fastest offensive possessions so the Golden Eagles are comfortable playing at speed as well. The matchup will also feature two stellar guards, Kameron Jones (19.3 PPG) on one side and Donovan Dent (20.6 PPG) on the other.
Other Tournament Teams
San Jose State
- Opponent: Loyola Chicago
- Tournament: NIT
- Date/Time: Wednesday / 9 p.m.
- TV: ESPN2
- Venue: Credit Union Event Center / San Jose, CA
- KenPom Game Prediction: Loyola Chicago wins 71-70
With Boise State entering the College Basketball Crown and both Nevada and UNLV turning down NIT bids, the automatic berth to the long-running secondary tournament fell to the Spartans who will host a first-round game. This is only the second time ever the Spartans have been in the NIT and first since 1981 (which ended in a first-round loss to UTEP). SJSU’s post-season history in general has been sparse and lacking in wins, with an 0-3 mark in the NCAA Tournament, 0-1 in the NIT and 1-2 in the CBI. The Spartans’ first-ever postseason win came in the 2023 CBI in which they beat Southern Indiana in the first round. This year things could continue what’s been a gradual shift toward being more relevant in the Mountain West and college basketball in general.
She’s a beaut 🥲
Who do we have cutting down the nets in Indy? #NIT2025 pic.twitter.com/Xn4eaX1dar
— NIT (@NITMBB) March 17, 2025
Loyola Chicago had a much more successful season by pretty much every metric, being a 20-win team and finishing in the top five of the A-10. However, the Spartans were in a tougher conference and that has closed the gap in terms of how much Loyola Chicago are favored. KenPom predicts a very narrow victory with bettors only giving Loyola Chicago a 2.5 point margin.
Boise State
- Opponent: George Washington
- Tournament: College Basketball Crown
- Date/Time: March 31 / 3:30 p.m.
- TV: FS1
- Venue: MGM Grand Garden Arena / Las Vegas, NV
- KenPom Game Prediction: Boise State wins 73-66
The Broncos were the recipients of an auto-bid to the NIT, but the new tournament on the block, the FOX-sponsored College Basketball Crown, successfully wooed Boise State to join its field over the NIT. Financial considerations likely played a big role as advancing to the semifinal and final comes with big NIL payouts. The championship-winning team will get $300,000 to divide amongst its players. For mid-major teams, that’s a big boost.
The field is set. Two weeks from today it all goes down in Vegas. 16 teams. 1 crown. Tickets available via @vividseats now – https://t.co/VjK7Uctf7B pic.twitter.com/5sxdVoFdk7
— College Basketball Crown (@CBBCrown) March 17, 2025
While the field for the CBC is full of teams from high-major conferences, Boise State could be considered one of the favorites in the tournament. The Broncos have the highest NET ranking (44) of any team, with only Cincinnati (50), Villanova (55) and Nebraska (59) being in close proximity. It will be a tough field, though, as all but four teams rank in the top 100 of the NET and all are within the top 150.
Boise State’s first-round opponent is one of the weakest in the tournament. George Washington is 124th in the NET and the Revolutionaries finished seventh in the A-10. Provided the Broncos can pull from the momentum built from a solid run in the Mountain West tournament, a first-round win should be a minimum.
Of note for the Broncos is the opportunity for Tyson Degenhart to become the first player in program history to surpass 2,000 career points. Degenhart became the all-time leader in points for Boise State during the conference tournament and currently sits at 1,971 career points. One great scoring game or two decent ones would put him in the exclusive 2K points club.
