Utah State Football Opponent Preview Vol. 10 – Hawaii | Sports

Game Info

• Game Day: Nov. 16
• Location: Merlin Olsen Field (Logan, UT)
• Kickoff Time: 1 p.m.
• TV Broadcast: Spectrum Sports

Quick-Hit Info on Hawaii

• Head Coach: Timmy Change (3rd season at Hawaii, 9-18 overall record)
• 2023 Record: 5-8
• 2023 Offense Rank: 108th (21.4 points per game)
• 2023 Defense Rank: 112th (32.2 points allowed per game)
• Returning Production Rank — 7th
• 2024 Preseason Consensus Ranking — 111th

History of Utah State vs Hawaii

• All-Time: Utah State leads 12-6
• Current Streak: Utah State has won the last seven meetings
• First-ever Meeting: Dec. 17, 1927 (Hawaii won 21-20)
• Last Meeting: Nov. 12, 2022 (Utah State won 41-34)

Hawaii hasn’t been a great team since it moved to the Mountain West in 2012 and Utah State has mostly been a solid team. Unsurprising then is that USU has won seven straight against the Warriors, including every matchup since the two teams joined the MW.

Hawaii Players to Watch

• Brayden Schager (QB)
• Pofele Ashlock (WR)
• Jalen Smith (LB)
• Jamih Otis (LB)
• Cam Stone (CB)

The Warriors in 2023

One maybe could have said Hawaii earned a couple “moral victory” points in losses to a pair of Power Five teams in the opening two weeks of 2023. The only issue with that is those losses were to Vanderbilt (35-28) and Stanford (37-24), teams that went 2-10 and 3-9, respectively. Pair that with an underwhelming 31-20 win over an FCS team and a 45-point loss to Oregon and the Warriors didn’t exactly have a rousing start to the season.

But after those opening four games, Hawaii were actually…okay? After mid-September, the Warriors had a 4-5 record with wins over multiple teams that had winning records, New Mexico State and Air Force. Losing by 21 to New Mexico and getting blanked 35-0 to San Jose State kind of offset the more impressive wins but it’s progress.

Much like USU’s Game 9 opponent, Washington State, the Warriors were entirely dependent upon their passing game. Brayden Schager threw for 3,542 yards and 26 touchdowns which accounted for nearly 80 percent of both Hawaii’s total offense and total offensive touchdowns for the entire year. Though oddly, and unlike WSU, when Schager threw for fewer yards the Warriors seemed to win more and those games also coincided with outings in which they saw more success running the ball. The four times all year in which Hawaii ran for more than 100 yards resulted in four wins. In three of those games, Schager threw for less than his average of 272 yards per game.

2024 Season Prospects

Maybe the most important number in all of Hawaii’s offseason is its percentage of returning production which stood at 81 percent after the close of the spring portal window. The Warriors return 15 starters and a chance for a lot of internal development.

Well, they were returning 15 starters. The Warriors are down one of those as things have changed since the close of the portal. Top returning receiver, Steven McBride (1,024 yards, nine TDs in 2023) was suspended from the team following criminal charges stemming from his arrest for allegedly assaulting his girlfriend. McBride has since returned to practice, but faces an uphill battle to play in 2024 due to eligibility issues. If he remains out for the year it would be huge for the prospects of the Hawaii passing attack that is so crucial to the offense.

The next-man-up at receiver is Pofele Ashlock, who actually led the team in receptions, though not yards, in 2023. He reeled in 83 passes for 832 yards and tied with McBride for the team lead in TDs with nine of his own. He’ll step into the WR1 role suitably enough but after that it’s not clear who can become the new WR2. There’s a bevy of candidates, though after Hawaii’s game one Dekel Crowdus, a transfer from Kentucky, could be one of those. He was second to Ashlock in receptions and yards while catching one of Schager’s two passing TDs.

Hawaii’s run game looks to be much of the same as previous years, underwhelming. The 76 yards per game of 2023 the literal second-worst mark in the country, isn’t likely to return but prospects aren’t exactly soaring. One of the many returning players is running back Landon Sims who averaged a meager 4.0 yards per carry in his 63 attempts last year with a single rushing touchdown. Sims remains the starter and in game one of the Warriors’ 2024 season he had a solid but not necessarily super impressive debut. He got 58 yards on only 10 carries but once again wasn’t a threat near the goal line. Schager scored two rushing TDs, both of five yards or less.

There are several interesting playmakers Hawaii returns on defense, namely Peter Manuma at safety, who led the team in both tackles (87) and interceptions (three), and Jalen Smith the team’s top playmaking linebacker (9.0 TFLs last year). The Warriors actually returned every player on defense aside from the D-line, where they returned zero starters. The back end of the defense should be capable enough, but if the D-line doesn’t step up then a repeat of last year’s 112th-ranked defense could very well be in the cards.

Preseason Game Prediction — Fairly Decisive Win

Utah State clearly has Hawaii’s number and playing in Maverik Stadium will be a boost for the Aggies as well. A defense that will likely continue to struggle and an offense that puts up flashy passing stats but not much in the way of overall production isn’t going to trouble USU too much. If the Aggies let their guard down and allow a ton of passing yards in this one (we’re talking around 400-plus) then this one could be a nail-biter, but otherwise this one should be a relatively easy win for the home team.