From a preseason perspective, the first three weeks of Utah State’s season were not meant to be fully enlightening. The Aggies were set to face an FCS team and two ranked power conference opponents. Based on historical precedent, that meant a 99.9% chance of going 1-2 given past results against those two types of opponents (USU was 0-37 against ranked P4 teams before this year and 31-8 against FCS teams since the 1978 Division I split).
The “real” season would begin this week, with the Aggies’ homecoming game against Troy, a game against a Sun Belt contender where the result would be a bit closer to a coin flip. And after that game, Pac-12 play would begin with Utah State chasing its first-ever title in the remade conference.
That plan has hit a snag. Mainly because the Aggies didn’t take care of business against Idaho State, but also because of how last Saturday’s beatdown at Utah went. Few expected Utah State to win, but fewer thought the gap would be as wide as it was on the field at Rice-Eccles Stadium. A 33-point loss may not be the worst-ever loss on the scoreboard, but on the field, and in the stats, the gap between the two teams was massive.
Based on Net Success Rate, the Aggies fared only slightly better than Boston College in its 55-7 loss to Iowa State. By that same metric, Utah State was more outmatched by Utah than many teams were in Week 3 losses with bigger margins. That includes Eastern Michigan (lost 54-10 to Wisconsin), UTEP (lost 52-17 to Michigan) and Western Kentucky (lost 38-0 to Indiana).
That this result came against an in-state rival made it hurt even more.
“This one stung our team,” said Utah State head coach Bronco Mendenhall. “They wanted to play well in that game. They saw it as a great opportunity. Monday morning was somber.”
Out of three weeks, only one has held any kind of positivity: the 16-14 loss to a (formerly) ranked Washington team. That the Aggies only lost by two is something of an accomplishment, but ultimately still a loss. Moral victories still go in the loss column.
There’s a lot that is currently not going right with this Utah State team, mostly coming from the offense, though the defense showcased a few heretofore unseen issues in stopping big plays against the Utes. But where this article will spend more of its focus is on whether this ship can be turned around. Out of all the stats and numbers that can be thrown around in Aggie football discourse, the most important number is 0-3, the team’s current record.
The NFL media has a favorite stat to throw around about 0-2 teams, that being the low percentage of teams that make the playoffs after losing their first two games. The exact percentage fluctuates a bit but is usually about 10%. For college football, going 0-2 is more like reaching the warning track. The real point of worry is an 0-3 start.
Since 1998 (the start of the BCS era), roughly 21% of teams who started the season 0-2 were able to get to six wins and qualify for bowl eligibility. That percentage plummets to just 8% for those who start 0-3, or only 30 of 356 teams.
Bronco Mendenhall has coached two teams in his career that began the season 0-3, first at Virginia in 2016 and then in 2024 with New Mexico. Those two teams finished 2-10 and 5-7, respectively. Coincidentally, those seasons are also the ones in which Mendenhall lost to an FCS team in the season opener, just like this year’s Utah State squad.
Those two seasons for Mendenhall are mostly in line with the trend of how teams that start 0-3 end up doing. Here’s a breakdown of the final win totals for all of the aforementioned 350-plus teams that start the season with three consecutive losses.
- 0-2 Wins — 47%
- 3-4 Wins — 33%
- 5-6 Wins — 14%
- 7+ Wins — 6%
These percentages aren’t exactly encouraging. And, in this context, Mendenhall actually did pretty well in 2024 to not be like the eight in 10 teams that finish the year with fewer than five wins after a 0-3 start.
For those that did complete the turnaround, that switch got flipped right around the fourth game of the season. Of those 30 teams that made it to bowl eligibility, 22 won their fourth game of the season, and 29 of the 30 notched their first victory no later than game number five. The only team that pulled off a bowl game after an 0-6 start was the 2016 Miami (OH) squad.
As much as Mendenhall keeps talking about addressing issues, working through the process, and pointing out how tough the teams they’ve played are, the time is far spent to be doing anything except changing the zero in the win column. The players are likely anxious about getting a win, though they also have a sense that the breakthrough is close.
“I feel like we’re right there,” said linebacker Asher Cunningham. “I feel like our team is really close, and we’re bonded together, and we have all the talent in the world to be the best team we can be, and our goal is to pack to a championship, and I feel like that’s still in our reach, like, easily, so I just feel like if we just keep our head down, keep working, just stay humble, and just fix the things we need to fix. We have a long season ahead of us, so, yeah, I don’t feel any pressure with that.”
“The confidence whatsoever does not go down with the offense, in my opinion,” said wide receiver Demick Starling. “We work really hard, and we will have a breakthrough. I was with Robert [Anae] at Virginia. I’ve seen success. I’ve seen what his offense could do, just how explosive it could be, just how consistent it could be. The good thing about football is that you practice more than you play. So we have at least three to four more days of practice during each week. So we’ll get it together.”
We’ll find out this next Saturday whether or not that confidence is misplaced.
