How did current/future Pac-12 teams compare to the new MW and other G6 leagues? | Sports

The Pac-12’s reformation draws ever closer. Six institutions have now played their last conference game on the gridiron with their soon-to-be old league. Boise State completed a three-peat as its parting gift to the Mountain West, defeating future MW “flagship” UNLV by 17 points. The Broncos will be joined by four other conference mates — Colorado State, Fresno State, Utah State and San Diego State — that have accounted for 12 of the 13 conference titles since the start of the modern era in 2013. And, over in the Sun Belt, Texas State quietly achieved its third straight bowl season, the first in the program’s short 14-year FBS history.

With the conclusion of the 2025 season imminent, let’s delve into how the season went for the future Pac-12 schools in comparison to the Mountain West. This fall didn’t lack for drama between the schools, with UNLV, New Mexico and Hawaii defending the Mountain West’s honor against the departing schools. 

It’s been said that comparison is the thief of joy and perhaps that’s what’s sucking all the fun out of college football. Comparisons, not between teams on the field but between teams that haven’t played and conferences that have little overlap, are all over the place and have only heated up over discussions on the finite number of spots in the College Football Playoff. But let’s delve into the season’s spirit and be a scrooge once more by comparing the new Pac-12 with its regional counterpart, the new Mountain West, along with some comparison to the rest of the Group of Six leagues. 

Let’s look at the data for all of the conferences to get an idea on how well they did. The first step will be to adjust things based on future memberships as teams will be moving around starting in 2026. Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Utah State, San Diego State and Texas State are all moving to the Pac-12. Northern Illinois and UTEP are heading to the Mountain West, with Louisiana Tech moving to the Sun Belt. All of those teams’ performances in 2025 have been counted toward their future conference for the purpose of this comparison. Also, in addition to overall record, this data will include an average ranking for teams (and through the teams, their conferences) across three predictive metrics, SP+, KFord and FEI.

The Pac-12 poached the Mountain West, and attempted to pilfer schools from the American as well, with the intention of becoming the preeminent power in the revenue sports. The ideal would be to monopolize the supposed non-P4 College Football Playoff spot reserved for conference champions (though we’ve seen this year how there can be more than one G6 team in the hunt for those automatic qualifiers) and lord over the remaining Group of Six leagues to the point where the Pac-12 would be in consideration for getting back its designation as one of the “Autonomous” conferences.

To that end, the Pac-12 schools don’t appear to be in a position to accomplish that. Both the American and Sun Belt posted better overall records with their teams and each produced a team that made it to the playoffs. None of the Pac-12 schools really came all that close due to shaky performances in key games at multiple stages throughout the year (Boise State in its non-conference and San Diego State in multiple conference matchups).

The best that can be said of the Pac-12 schools is that it boasts the deepest roster of bowl eligible teams. Sure, the American and Sun Belt produced more overall bowl teams, but the Pac-12 only had two of its eight eventual members miss out on a bowl game this year, giving it the highest ratio of bowl/non-bowl eligible teams by a comfortable margin. It also took a very close second place in terms of average rank by the three computer metrics, again showcasing depth even with the lack of playoff-caliber teams.

In direct comparison to the Mountain West, a similar theme plays out. The Pac-12 lacks a top-tier team but so does the Mountain West, making the two leagues very similar at the top. The top six spots are evenly split by both overall record and by the average ranks metric (with the slight anomaly that Washington State makes it to fourth-best by average rank, replacing 8-4 Fresno State which makes it into the top six by overall record).

Much like the Pac-12 in comparison to the rest of the Group of Six, though, depth is where separation occurs. The Mountain West ends up being incredibly thin behind UNLV, New Mexico and Hawaii as those are the only teams that won more than four games. And while the Rebels, Lobos and Warriors went a very solid 8-4 against future Pac-12 teams, the remaining six were a combined 2-13 against the Pac-12 (both of those wins were against 2-10 Colorado State).

As much as depth is nice to have, and it’s something that can bolster strength of schedule, the Pac-12 cannot afford to lack a top-tier program. Someone must emerge on a yearly basis that is able to dominate and make a legitimate push for the playoffs. The old Pac-12 died because year after year it didn’t consistently have a team separate and make a run at the BCS or the early four-team playoff format.

The new Pac-12 will need a team that carries the banner. Boise State will see itself in that role. Its 2024 season certainly showed that potential, though the rest of their last half-decade of football has not lived up to the 2024, or even pre-2020, level of excellence from the Broncos. It may come down to one of the other newcomers, or the old guard with Oregon State and Washington State, to pick up the fallen Pac-12 standard and lead the conference to reclaim its lost glory.