In the 13 years Utah State has been part of the Mountain West, it has never lost to Hawaii. The Aggies’ eight-game winning streak against the Warriors (which dates back to when both teams were in the WAC) will be put to a final test Saturday evening in what is also a crucial mid-season matchup between a pair of teams aiming to prove they can be contenders in the Mountain West.
Hawaii enters the game with a 4-2 record but not as much respect as a team with four wins might hope. The Warriors are the lowest-ranked four-win team by Bill Connelly’s SP+, being ranked behind no less than seven teams that have four losses on the season so far, including an Air Force team Hawaii beat not quite two weeks ago. Utah State meanwhile, has clawed back a bit more of the respect it had lost after a few mediocre/bad season the last few years. The Aggies have made the second-biggest jump in KFord rating of any Mountain West team and the 11th-best jump of any FBS team.
And yet, both teams sit in an in-between space on the conference hierarchy, above teams that are looking like bottom-feeders but below the expected conference contenders. Both are also only projected to have slightly better than a coin-flip chance of making a bowl game. But this game is where one of these two teams can begin to change that narrative.
For Utah State, this week’s showdown also represents the start of what could very well be a very different type of season. Each of its first five games have been decided by multiple scores, but from here on out, nearly every one of the Aggies’ games is expected to be a close contest according to computer metrics. It’s a new challenge that head coach Bronco Mendenhall has to prepare his team for, especially given how wide open the Mountain West title race appears to be.
“We think the Mountain West Conference is wide open. We think there’s almost complete parity. And it’s too early to say otherwise, but that’s what we’re preparing for,” Mendenhall said. “And so if the computers say (most of the remaining games will be close), I don’t know whether that’s an endorsement or an indictment, but well, I guess we’ll see.”
The number one challenge when facing Hawaii for the longest time as been their passing offense. Head coach Timmy Chang has the Warriors pushing toward their potential peak as a run-and-shoot offense, led by redshirt freshman quarterback Micah Alejado. The Las Vegas native actually saw his first major snaps against Utah State, making an appearance as an injury fill-in mid-way through the Aggies’ 55-10 domination on Merlin Olsen Field a year ago. Alejado completed 11 of 12 passes for 111 yards and threw for the one touchdown Hawaii had all game. A week later was when Alejado announced his presence to the Mountain West in full, throwing for 469 yards and five touchdowns against the Mendenhall-led New Mexico Lobos.
Though injuries have limited Alejado, as he missed Hawaii’s games against Portland State and Sam Houston State, he’s still just about matching the season production of Utah State’s own QB, Bryson Barnes in terms of total pass attempts and yards (Barnes has attempted 129 passes and thrown for 1,143 yards while Alejado has thrown 164 passes with 1,043 yards).
“(Alejado) is skilled. He’s elusive, he throws well, he’s confident and just does a really nice job,” Mendenhall said, adding “more often than not he’s very successful, very consistent and plays really well.”
Hawaii’s passing offense will bear some resemblance to a previous Aggie opponent: UTEP. Both place a high emphasis on spreading defenses out with heavy wide receiver packages and utilizing the short passing game with the space created. The Miners threw nearly 50 percent of their passes against the Aggies between 0 and 9 yards beyond the line of scrimmage and Warriors’ QB Micah Alejado has a similar ratio of passes in that range (for reference, Bryson Barnes has only thrown 36% of his pass attempts between 0 and 9 yards past the line of scrimmage).
Against UTEP, the Aggies were able to swallow up this range of passes, allowing a mere 4.8 yards per attempt by Malachi Nelson. This despite allowing Nelson to complete 15 of his 16 short-range passes. And a successful defensive performance against Hawaii late Saturday night would end up looking very similar. Alejado is going to complete a lot of his passes and there are going to be a lot of plays in which the Aggies won’t have enough time to pressure him enough to force a poor throw. So far this season, Alejado has an average snap-to-throw time of 2.49 seconds according to Pro Football Focus, which is the 18th-fastest average among FBS quarterbacks. The key is in swarming to the football and ensuring the Warriors’ wide receivers don’t get bulk yards after the catch.
“Whether you’re defending the run game or the pass game, multiple helmets to the football matters,” Mendenhall said. “Leverage is really important. Certainly good players have to beat blocks and make plays, but the more players that are around the ball, the better. Especially when you’re playing a team, and teams, where the margins are thin. And that’s really the Mountain West Conference currently and I see it being that way down the stretch.”
There will be chances to get to Alejado, though. Hawaii ranks 119th in sacks allowed despite not facing teams that have shown they can get sacks outside of their game against the Warriors. Fresno State got four sacks in its game against Hawaii but have just six sacks across its five other games (that average of 1.2 would rank 123rd, sitting in a tie with Bill Belichick’s North Carolina Tar Heels). An almost exactly similar story has played out with Stanford, which also got four sacks when playing the Warriors but only have six the rest of the season. And it plays out in more similar (though less exaggerated) lines with Hawaii’s games against Arizona and Sam Houston State.
An interesting collection of stats, and something to keep an eye on with Utah State vs Hawaii this weekend.Hawaii QB Micah Alejado has started five games and in three of those he’s been sacked four times.In starts where Alejado has been sacked 4+ times, he’s completed 62.4%…
— Jason Walker (@jwalker_sports) October 9, 2025
The one fully successful game of pass protection for Hawaii came in its most recent contest, against Air Force, when Alejado wasn’t sacked a single time and only faced pressure on nine of 51 dropbacks. But even with this improvement, Utah State is pretty confident they’ll be able to bring down Alejado at least a few times.
“I see a lot of opportunities for not only just me but our whole front seven being able to attack a quarterback and get back there,” said USU linebacker John Miller, who leads the MW with 5.0 sacks. “I definitely feel like with how many times they do drop back and pass the ball, there’s going to be a lot of opportunities for us to take in getting in the backfield and getting sacks and I feel like we have a good game plan to help us do that.”
Getting back to reviewing Hawaii’s short passing game, the Warriors also excel in moving the ball with passes behind the line of scrimmage, i.e. screens. There are several players the Warriors employ that are capable of making things happen after a reception on a screen, though running backs Cam Bearfield and Landon Sims certainly top of the list. Bearfield currently ranks first in the Mountain West in yards after catch per reception (minimum of 10 targets), with an average of 15.33 yards. Sims is ninth in the conference at 8.22 yards.
Utah State’s experience with defending screens is a mixed bag. Or, put another way, it’s been a tale of two types of games. Against Vanderbilt and Texas A&M, the screen game worked very well as those two teams combined to complete all eight screen attempts for 75 yards, good for 9.4 yards per attempt. But against all other opponents, screens have been pretty rare with UTEP, Air Force and McNeese combining to attempt only two (only one being completed and managing just two yards gained). Hawaii will bring an important test of Utah State’s screen defense. Against a pair of ranked SEC teams, the Aggies couldn’t contain screens, but none of their other opponents have really tried. Hawaii will do so and USU will have to be ready for it.
There will be a new, or more accurately a returning, piece to the Hawaii offense. Wide receiver Nick Cenacle is expected to return from a knee injury that has kept him out him for five weeks. The senior caught 63 passes for 721 yards and six touchdowns last season and had caught five passes for 30 yards before being sidelined by the injury. He will bolster an already deep receiving group featuring Pofele Ashlock (who leads the Mountain West in total receptions), Brandon White, Tama Uiliata, Karsyn Pupunu and Jackson Harris.
“Nick brings a lot of experience and a lot of catches, a lot of yards, understanding,” Chang said. “If he’s doing what he’s supposed to do and performing at the highest level and the other guys are as well, we really believe we’ve got a great receiving core.”
While stopping Hawaii’s passing offense has just about always been a key for stopping the Warriors, putting up points against their defense has many times been relatively easy. During Utah State’s eight-game winning streak, it has scored at least 35 points every time. And in the entire 18-game history between USU and Hawaii, the Aggies have scored less than 30 points just five times (two of those being in the 1950s). However, there’s been a potential shift in Hawaii’s defensive prowess.
Just a handful of years ago, the Warriors were a team that consistently ranked in the bottom 30 in points allowed per game. Last year, though, they were decent, ranking 75th and this year rank rank 69th so far. Just two opponents have managed to score more than 23 points against Hawaii.
“I think the biggest improvement in Hawaii’s program over Timmy’s time there has been the last two years defensively,” Mendenhall said. “They’ve done a nice job on defense. They’re playing complimentary football at a higher level. And even from a year ago to this year, another step in progress.”
Hawaii’s best attribute so far has been defending the run. Its opponents have averaged just 3.9 yards per carry this year, a number that is itself inflated by having played the run experts Air Force. Exclude that outlying game and the Warriors have only allowed opposing teams to average 3.4 yards per carry (which would rank roughly 34th in the nation). Mendenhall praised the Warriors as having a “uniqueness to what they do with the physicality and the mindset and the aggression” of their run defense.
This improved run defense will go head-to-head with a Utah State rushing offense that has improved notably the last three weeks. After averaging just 3.0 yards per carry against UTEP and Texas A&M, the Aggies have averaged 6.0 yards per carry across their last three games.
Arguably the biggest change for USU between those two stretches has been the effectiveness of quarterback Bryson Barnes in the run game. In the UTEP and Texas A&M games combined, he ran for 25 yards but in the next three games he’s tallied 220 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns.
It’s very good news then, that despite leaving the Vanderbilt game in the middle of the second half with an injury, Barnes has been cleared to play and there should be every expectation he will suit up and start Saturday evening. He’s been a full practice participant and will be a massive key in keeping the efficient USU offense at its peak.
The Aggies’ offensive line should be healthier this week than it was in the latter end of the Vanderbilt game. Late in that contest, the Aggies were down both their starting tackles. Left tackle Jake Eichorn will remain out, but right tackle Trey Andersen will make his return as he was taken off the availability report after missing the last three games.
One indication that Utah State could have a big day offensively despite Hawaii’s general improvement on defense is that good offense have still done well against the Warriors. And the Aggies have a good offense, ranking 60th according to the FEI Offense Ratings. Two spots behind USU in those rankings is Arizona, which hung 40 points on Hawaii. Air Force is ranked 35th in offense by FEI and put up 35 points. The three FBS teams Hawaii has held to 23 or fewer points — Stanford, Sam Houston and Fresno State — rank 91st, 134th and 106th in offensive efficiency by FEI.
