This weekend Utah State will either make a booming announcement to the country or find itself licking wounds and looking for ways to regain lost momentum at the end of a matchup with No. 18 Vanderbilt.
Utah State has generated quite a bit of much-needed positive momentum in the early part of its season. Preseason predictions placed the Aggies as a fringe bowl team, at best, with the more pessimistic guesses placing them as one of the 20-30 worst teams in the nation. They’ve climbed up from that floor to a 3-1 record, USU’s best start since the 2021 Mountain West championship season, and many of those metrics that had the Aggies in the bottom 30 now have them as roughly average for the FBS.
All of that momentum is now on the line with a buy game against a ranked SEC opponent. Again. This week it’s No. 18 Vanderbilt. Three weeks ago it was then 19th-ranked Texas A&M (who is now ranked ninth in the AP Poll). The Aggies took their lumps in a 44-22 loss against one of the best teams in the country and rebounded to win their first conference game and rout an FCS team. Can Utah State learn from its earlier loss on one of the biggest stages of collegiate football? The Aggies feel like they’ve built confidence, and can look to positives from that A&M game that prove to themselves they can stand up to the best teams in the nation.
“I feel like, as an offense, we were a lot better in that second half [of the game against Texas A&M],” said USU receiver Brady Boyd. “So just gaining the confidence, knowing that we can do it against teams like an SEC team like A&M. So just gaining that confidence, just knowing that we can go into Vanderbilt and if we just do our job and do our stuff, we’ll have a good shot.”
Every team presents an inherent challenge but usually also a set of potential exploits. The problem with Vanderbilt is that it presents seemingly no clear weaknesses. At the most important position, quarterback, they’ve got a star in Diego Pavia who powers not only a potent pass game (Vandy ranks 43rd in the nation in yards per game) but also an even more dangerous ground attack (21st in the nation). The Commodores also rank 30th in offensive turnovers, have given up the the seventh-fewest sacks, are eighth in third-down conversions, 11th in run defense and 25th in sacks. Heck, Vanderbilt’s special teams even showcased elite ability by blocking a PAT, field goal and punt all in the same game last week.
Where do you attack a team with no glaring issues, and seemingly have strengths, across all of the key aspects of the game? Well, it’ll come down to Utah State being the best version of itself and bringing that to the gridiron.
“Even though we’re focusing on the opponent, what those matchups are, I really don’t spend much time on the opponent,” Aggies’ head coach Bronco Mendenhall said. “We certainly acknowledge who we’re playing, and we acknowledge their scheme, and we acknowledge the style of play. And then it really is just our execution, and our fundamentals, and our effort, and our mindset. And that’s plenty to think about. So this opponent provides plenty of challenges and a unique set of circumstances to take on. Once we acknowledge that, it just really is about us from then on.”
“We have our opportunity. It’s another game,” USU defensive back Noah Avinger said. “We got to focus on ourselves and kind of be process driven on a daily day basis and just go put our best foot forward on all three phases of the game. And I feel like that’s what we’re going to do this week.”
The Aggies have done pretty well to become the best version of themselves over the last couple of weeks. In the first two games of the season the team struggled with penalties, allowing too many sacks and struggling on third down. In the first two games, Utah State converted 4 of 26 third downs. They’ve since converted 12 of 21. In those first two games, Utah State allowed 12 combined sacks. They’ve since allowed four.
Along with the basic levels of execution, Utah State has been able to unleash chaos on offense. Offensive coordinator Kevin McGiven has confused defenses with different kinds of personnel packages that give defensive coordinators pause.
“I know it’s making D coordinator’s heads kind of spin, just seeing like three running back sets and then we’ll spread them out and go empty out of it,” USU wide receiver Brady Boyd said. “It’s just so complex and (McGiven) has got such a great mind for offense.”
Utah State will need every bit of the offensive prowess that has produced 97 points in the last two weeks to overcome Vanderbilt’s defense that ranks 19th in scoring defense and 23rd in yards allowed per game. Bryson Barnes, who has amassed 752 combined yards and 10 touchdowns in the last two weeks, will need to bring the toughness, grit and production from his performances against Air Force and McNeese.
Key to keeping Barnes at his most productive will be keeping him upright. The Aggies may have allowed fewer sacks in the last couple of week, but that’s not to say they’re out of the woods in terms of addressing their weakness in pass protection. Vanderbilt has one of the more potent pass rushes in the nation, having gotten to opposing QBs 11 times, good for 25th in the nation.
Looking at the Aggies’ defense, it will be tasked with stopping Vandy’s suddenly very potent offense. A unit whose ability which arguably begins and ends with what is done by star QB, Pavia. The sixth-year senior took the long way around to being an SEC star and has managed to make quite the name for himself on and off the field. Mendenhall credited the recent success of the Commodores to Pavia’s ability combined with the coaching staff.
“He’s a really good football player. Obviously very good leader. The face, the brand and kind of, I would say the reason that there’s a resurgence at Vanderbilt,” Mendenhall said.
Pavia led Vanderbilt in rushing yards last season, in addition to his role as a passer. He ran for 801 yards, ninth-most among quarterbacks in 2024. This year has been more of the same as Pavia has run for a team-leading 215 yards through four games. This level of production makes Pavia not just some other running quarterback. He’s the engine of the offense in pretty much every way with 57.2% of every offensive yard the Commodores have gained being accounted for by Pavia alone.
But even if the level of involvement is relatively unprecedented for what the Aggies have faced this season, there are similarities to other QBs they’ve faced. In particular, Texas A&M’s signal-caller Marcel Reed. Much like Pavia, Reed has showcased a great ability to run the ball and even punished USU by running for 66 yards and a touchdown against them three weeks ago. Having faced that challenge once already, the Aggies’ defense is ready for another go at it.
“All the guys have seen it now,” Avinger said. “So we kind of have like an idea of how to game plan against it. And each day we’ll work on it day to day. And Coach Howell’s going to put together the game plan that we need to come out successful.”
As much as Pavia is the primary danger, he’s far from the only one. Running back Sedrick Alexander, though not used for high volumes of rush attempts, has proved plenty dangerous to opponents. He’s averaged 5.5 yards per carry and tallied seven total touchdowns, four on the ground and three as a receiver. Speaking of notable receiving targets, Vanderbilt will present a unique challenge via its tight end, Eli Stowers. He’s the leading receiver for the Commodores with 16 catches for 233 yards and a touchdown. Great tight ends can often create severe matchup issues which the Aggies will have to address.
