As Utah State closes in on the mid-way point of the season (and its first bye in Week 6) it’ll travel to Tennessee to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores. It’s a team that’s been on the wrong end of plenty of jokes for being a struggling SEC team that has rarely managed a winning record in the last decade or so. But the 2024 season provided some hope for Vandy as it tries to find a new path forward in a conference stacked with football powerhouses.
For the Aggies, this game will be a chance to earn some sorely-needed credibility. A win over a power conference team sparked the eventual 2021 conference title-winning team. Perhaps this game will provide a similar boost if USU can pull off the road win.
This is the in-depth preseason preview of Utah State’s fifth opponent of the season, the Vanderbilt Commodores.
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Game Info
- Game Day: Sept. 27
- Location: FirstBank Stadium (Nashville, TN)
- Kickoff Time: 10:45 a.m.
- TV Broadcast: SEC Network
- Radio Broadcast: KVNU 102.1 FM / 610 AM
Quick-Hit Info on Vanderbilt
- Head Coach: Clark Lea (5th season at Vanderbilt, 16-33 record)
- 2024 Record: 7-6
- 2024 Offense Rank: 73rd (27.3 points per game)
- 2024 Defense Rank: 50th (23.4 points allowed per game)
- Returning Starters — (6 offense, 8 defense)
- 2025 Preseason Average Ranking — 45.3
Returning Production Rank — 3rd
History of Utah State vs this opponent
- All-Time Series: This is the first-ever meeting between Utah State and Vanderbilt
Opposing Players to Watch
- Diego Pavia (QB)
- Sedrick Alexander (RB)
- Eli Stowers (TE)
- Bryan Longwell (LB)
- Lanston Patterson (LB)
- Randon Fontenette (DB)
The Commodores in 2024
Things began fairly well for Vanderbilt, peaking in mid-October and late November when it eked into the AP Top 25 for a couple of weeks, thanks largely to wins over Alabama and Auburn as part of an overall 6-3 record as of Nov. 2. But three straight losses in late November led to a 6-6 record with a bowl win pushing them to a slight winning record.
Vanderbilt may be one of the best 7-6 teams in recent years. When playing at their peak, the Commodores were capable of competing with the best teams in the nation. They lost by six combined points to No. 7 Missouri and No. 5 Texas while beating No. 1 Alabama. Vanderbilt just couldn’t get over the hump for the most part against the numerous top 10 teams on its schedule (1-3 record) and had too many losses to unranked teams to be taken seriously despite playing well against top 10 teams (losses to Georgia State, South Carolina and LSU).
Vandy also made some headlines for off-the-field things, though not in a bad way. It was their quarterback, Diego Pavia, that sued the NCAA over his eligibility that enabled those who played junior college to receive at least one more year on their eligibility clock.
2025 Season Prospects
Given how well the Commodores played at times last year, there’s a lot of reason to be optimistic that with enough continuity, maybe they can pull off a big year. Ultimately, that’s a lot to ask as last year actually marked the first winning season Vandy has had since 2013 when it went 9-4 under then-head coach James Franklin (who then promptly left to take the Penn State job). Current HC Clark Lea has been trying to build up the program, but with inconsistent success, going 2-10 in his first year (he took over a team that went 0-9 the year prior), went 5-7 in year two but then regressed back to 2-10 in year three. Year four was this past season, but Lea will return a significant portion of his team.
Vanderbilt ranks third in the nation in returning production, though that can be slightly deceptive in terms of how much continuity the team has. On offense, just bringing back quarterback Diego Pavia accounts for a massive portion of the 2024 production. Pavia threw for 2,293 yards and ran for 801 more with 28 total touchdowns (20 passing, eight rushing) which consisted of nearly three-quarters of yards gained by the offense in total and 72% of touchdowns.
Pavia by himself makes Vanderbilt a potentially dangerous offense and his ability to scramble or be used in designed runs is significant. According to Pro Football Focus, he had a net of 898 rushing yards when adjusting out sacks from his rush yards. More than 600 of those were on designed run plays, which outpaced even the team’s top running back.
The problem is that beyond Pavia, there’s some question marks about the dynamism of his supporting cast on offense. Tight end Eli Stowers is definitely a threat, catching 49 passes for 638 yards and five touchdowns, but beyond him it’s a group of decently productive players. Wide receiver Junior Sherrill and running back Sedrick Alexander return, but neither were all that special in 2024. Sherrill caught 29 passes for 411 yards while Alexander averaged just 3.6 yards per rush (164 carries, 586 yards), though he did add decent value as a receiving back (238 receiving yards).
The transfer portal will be key for the Commodores in both weapons and in ensuring good O-line play. Trent Hudson, who caught 36 passes for 571 yards and 10 touchdowns for New Mexico State in 2023 has transferred in (after a year where he made four appearances and had zero catches for Mississippi State). The offensive line is where transfers will have the most impact. Vanderbilt lost four starters on the O-line but brought in seven transfers, four of which have significant starting experience. It’ll be a group new to playing at Vanderbilt and in the SEC, but it’s not a crew that will lack for Division I experience. How quickly they can figure things out together will be the key for them.
Pavia certainly has confidence in his squad as he’s claimed “we’ve got the tools” to win a national championship.
Vanderbilt’s defense could very easily be the real deal and the strength of the team. The team faced three top-30 offenses last year (Texas, Alabama and Tennessee) and did OK against them. Those three teams combined to average 34.1 points per game and Vanderbilt held those three teams to an average of 32.7 points (the most in any of those three game being 36). Holding teams to slightly below average isn’t always something to write home about, but when it’s three of the best offenses in the country you’re doing that to, you’ll at least make a small note about it. Keeping high-powered offenses from going nuts is at worst a decent starting point. And, furthermore, the selling point for the unit is that it hasn’t reached its peak and will return most of its key playmakers.
The top three leading tacklers for Vanderbilt are back — linebackers Bryan Longwell (89 tackles, 8.0 TFLs), Langston Patterson (78) and safety Randon Fontenette (73 tackles, 8.0 TFLs). The pass rush took a bit of a hit in losing Nicholas Rinaldi (6.0 sacks last year) but return basically the rest of the rotation and added a couple of transfers. In the defensive backfield, Fontenette leads the way and has returning starters Martel Hight and Jaylin Lackey at cornerback. Hight and Lackey were a sophomore and true freshman last year, making them a duo to keep an eye on as potential rising stars.
This year’s SEC is expected to be as stacked as ever, with Vanderbilt having to grind through the gauntlet of a projected top-five schedule in terms of difficulty. The meat-grinder schedule ground the Commodores down last year by season’s end. Whether this year is any different — and whether the Aggies have a solid chance in their game against them —depends greatly on the internal development and whether the coaching staff chose well in its transfer additions on the offensive line.
Preseason Game Prediction — Decisive Loss
This is a popular pick among the optimistic Aggies for an upset. Vanderbilt has been a mediocre and even bad team in the SEC, with losses or narrow wins against Group of Six teams not at all uncommon for them in recent years. Last year the Commodores lost to a 3-9 Georgia State team and in 2023 lost to UNLV and only narrowly beat a 5-8 Hawaii. A good Utah State team would likely be competitive against an average Vanderbilt team.
The issue is that this probably won’t be your average Vanderbilt squad, nor is this year’s Utah State team likely to be among its best. Bronco has consistently built programs up but has not been a Year 1 wonderkind for the teams he’s coached. Though if there are any surprises in how good the Aggies are this season, this game at Vanderbilt will likely be one of the first major indications of that.
