Utah State’s 2025 football season features a good mix of games projected to be tough and those expected to be far easier. So which games are which? That’s what we’ll be examining today, going through all 12 games on the schedule and ranking them 1-12 on how hard each will be and going a bit further by dividing them into tiers to group similarly-tough games together.
In aiding the creation of this ranking, I took four different 1-136 FBS rankings — ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), Bill Connelly’s SP+, Phil Steele’s preview magazine and the Kelley Ford (KFord) rankings — to create an average preseason ranking for each team. This forms the backbone of the ranking, but whether the game is played at home or on the road factored into the rankings and ensures this isn’t just a pure numbers-based thing.
Let’s start from the easiest and work our way to the toughest.
Win-or-be-embarrassed games
These are all home games against teams ranked really low (and also the one FCS game on the schedule). Losing one of these would be quite the frustration.
12. Week 4 vs McNeese
- Average Preseason Rankings — N/A
- All-Time Series — First-ever Meeting
Last year, McNeese went 6-6, the first time it hasn’t had a losing record since 2019. However, since we’re talking about an FCS team this should be assumed a win unless/until disaster strikes. Utah State has lost to FCS teams before, but it’s still a very rare occurrence. The Aggies should expect to win and win big. Anything less than victory colossal failure.
11. Week 1 vs UTEP
- Average Preseason Ranking — 126.8
- All-Time Series — USU leads 3-0
In another world, one in which Utah State stayed in the Mountain West, the UTEP Miners would have become conference rivals. As it stands, this game will be a one-off. It will also be the season opener, a time in which fans will have a high amount of hope for the season. It’ll also be a game where those same fans should be expecting a victory. UTEP has maxed out at seven wins in a season in the last 10 years, with four or fewer being the most typical. The Miners have the worst average ranking of any FBS team on USU’s schedule, making them the easiest of the FBS opponents. With this game also being at home, it should be a layup if the Aggies have any intentions of being close to bowl eligible.
10. Week 11 vs Nevada
- Average Preseason Ranking — 124.3
- All-Time Series — Nevada leads 19-8
Nevada isn’t too far off from being the easiest FBS opponent on the Aggies, schedule, but it falls just short (which is good for them, I suppose). The Wolf Pack are currently going through a doozy of a three-year span with seven total wins since the start of the 2022 season. Someday, Nevada will turn its program around, but until then any games against the Wolf Pack (let alone a home one like USU has) will be counted among the easiest games for any team.
Expect to win, though it could be close
These games are against teams that the Aggies are a combined 17-3 against since 2011. Wins over these teams are expected, though based on USU’s relative ranking and/or location of the game, they could certainly be close.
9. Week 9 @ New Mexico
- Average Preseason Ranking — 122.0
- All-Time Series — USU leads 17-14
This honestly is probably one of the most underrated games on the Mountain West schedule all year. Sure, it could be a pillow fight if both New Mexico and Utah State are, say, 2-6 at this point in the calendar. But even if things go south for both teams, there’s drama here. Lobos fans remain very sore about Bronco Mendenhall ditching their program after a decent start to a rebuild in 2024. New Mexico lost quite a bit of talent from last year’s roster, but so did Utah State. And with both teams having squads loaded with new faces and first-year head coaches — plus the history between UNM and Mendenhall — this should be a fun game.
8. Week 7 @ Hawaii
- Average Preseason Ranking — 100.5
- All-Time Series — USU leads 13-6
Utah State hasn’t lost to Hawaii since 2011. Even last year, in a 4-8 season, the Aggies beat the Warriors handily. Winning against Hawaii is just something USU does. All that said, the Warriors are coming into the season with more expectations and a notably higher preseason ranking. This game is also on the road, so there’s an added challenge for the Aggies in keeping their eight-game win streak over Hawaii going.
Slight underdog in these games
In both of these games, the Aggies are ranked notably lower, but they’re also both at home, giving them a decent chance or victory in both despite technically being underdogs.
7. Week 3 vs Air Force
- Average Preseason Ranking — 101.3
- All-Time Series — Air Force leads 7-5
Since 2018, Utah State is 3-3 against Air Force, showing how up-and-down this series has tended to be in recent years. There have been some relative thrillers (Aggie wins of 49-45 and 34-27) and some blowouts (Falcons wins of 31-7 and 35-7) in this span. Home games in this series tend to go better for the Aggies, but it hasn’t been a rule. With the Falcons coming off a season that went about as bad for them as USU’s season went for it, there should be a decent expectation of being able to pull off a victory. But what ultimately tips this game toward Air Force being the favorite is that Troy Calhoun teams have typically done a pretty good job of quickly rebounding from singular bad seasons. Utah State has tended to rebuild slower.
6. Week 8 vs San Jose State
- Average Preseason Ranking — 85.3
- All-Time Series — SJSU leads 21-20-1
In 2023, San Jose State ended a 10-game losing streak against the Aggies, taking back the all-time series lead it had squandered during the 2010s. The 2024 season, though the two sides didn’t face, seems to have showcased opposite trajectories for these two programs. The Spartans finished a third straight seven-win season (the first in their program history) with Utah State suffering its worst season in nearly a decade (outside of the COVID 2020 year). Even with those facts, there’s still a good chance the Aggies can be competitive, if not pull off a win. But that will only happen if USU is already exceeding preseason expectations by Week 8.
Fairly unlikely win, but anything’s possible
Road games against tough opponents. Keep hopes high but expectations low.
5. Week 13 @ Fresno State
- Average Preseason Ranking — 87.0
- All-Time Series — Fresno State leads 19-13-1
Outside of a three-game win streak against the Bulldogs in the late 2010s, the Aggies have really struggled to get wins over Fresno State. This one is still on the edge of being an unlikely win or a competitive win since the Bulldogs are also coming off a bit of a down year (6-7) and have a first-year coach. The question will be whether Fresno State will get back to the form it showcased from 2021 to 2023 in which it won 29 games in three seasons. If they do, then it could make this game even tougher than several games ranked higher on this list. If not, well then things could get interesting.
4. Week 12 @ UNLV
- Average Preseason Ranking — 64.8
- All-Time Series — USU leads 18-9
UNLV just had its second ever 11-win season and is also coming off its best two-season stretch in program history. That’s leading to a lot of expectations for the Rebels. There’s also a bit of spice in that UNLV turned down a Pac-12 invite, throwing its lot in with the Mountain West and believing it to be the better long-term option. Utah State made the opposite choice and at pretty much the same point in time. It has the makings of a mini-rivalry. In the two most recent games, UNLV has won fairly comfortably, though the most recent meeting in Las Vegas went Utah State’s way courtesy of a last-minute go-ahead touchdown.
3. Week 5 @ Vanderbilt
- Average Preseason Ranking — 50.5
- All-Time Series — First-ever meeting
This is a pretty popular pick for optimistic Utah State fans as a game in which the Aggies could put everyone else on notice, and this is certainly a good pick for that kind of optimism. There’s a certain prestige about beating an SEC team on the road but Vanderbilt isn’t expected to be an elite team. It’s a game against a Power Four opponent that will be on the easier side and could be akin to close losses, or even wins, the Aggies have had against the P4. Games like Iowa in 2021 (24-14 loss), Washington State and Oregon State in 2021 (wins of 26-23 and 24-13, respectively) and Wake Forest in 2019 (38-35 loss) among plenty others that date even further back. Most of those games have still turned up as losses, though. It could be close, but realistic expectations still peg it as a loss.
Massive underdog
If the Aggies win any of these games, it’ll be a potentially season-defining victory and it will likely be against a team ranked inside the AP Top 25 or the College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings.
2. Week 14 vs Boise State
- Average Preseason Ranking —39.5
- All-Time Series — Boise State leads 24-5
Every year the stat gets brought up about Utah State having one win over Boise State in the 21st century. Much like the Aggies have the number of teams like Hawaii, San Jose State and New Mexico, Boise State has games against Utah State locked down pretty tight. It’s a monkey on the Aggies’ back and finding a way to cast that off would be a fantastic result pretty much no matter how it occurs. This year just may not be the right time for it to happen with USU in a rebuild and Boise State reloading after a College Football Playoff appearance.
1. Week 2 @ Texas A&M
- Average Preseason Ranking — 10.8
- All-Time Series — Texas A&M leads 1-0
In this Aggies vs Aggies matchup, Utah State will not be expected to win by hardly anyone. Setting aside USU’s consistent struggles against Power Four teams, Texas A&M will enter the season as a ranked in at least top 15 if not the top 10. History will not be on Utah State’s side should that be the case as it is 0-35 against teams ranked in the top 15 of the AP Poll. The closest USU has come to a win against a top-15 team was in 2018 when the Jordan Love-led Aggies narrowly lost to No. 11 Michigan State 38-31.
