The Pac-12 and Mountain West have begun their announced mediation, seeking a resolution to multiple lawsuits brought on by the Pac-12 and some of its member schools in an attempt to lower what they feel is an extortionate amount of fees — nearly $150 million — for poaching five teams from the Mountain West in an attempt to rebuild their own conference.
It could be an incredibly lengthy process or a short one depending on whether compromises can be found. But while it was the Mountain West that initiated the mediation, indicating it could be a little more eager to get all of this legal nonsense over with, the Pac-12 has plenty riding on this mediation. Along with that, these next few weeks are set to determine the long term fate of the 110-year old conference.
Ultimately, the goal for the Pac-12 is clear: become the preeminent non-Power 4 conference. They want to stand above both the Mountain West and AAC which have fought over the title of “best of the rest” for years. Bringing in the undisputed top football teams in the Mountain West over the last 10 years, along with the majority of basketball powers, was a good first step. The addition of Gonzaga was a master stroke that could enable the Pac-12 to be a basketball powerhouse for years to come.
And yet, the final piece to that dream of being the definitive best of the rest (or even being seen as a fringe power league) has not been seized by the Pac-12. Its eight member schools — seven full-member institutions — make up most of, but not all, the mid-major powers in college football and basketball. That’s something they’ll want to address with further expansion. Of course, that expansion is urgently necessary as the conference cannot yet stand on its own. If another all-sports member is not added by July 2026, the Pac-12 will truly die, each of its potential members left to the mercy of independence or going back to the Mountain West, hat in hand.
The big fish to fry is the Pac-12’s long-term TV deal. To put it bluntly, it’s gradually becoming more and more of a mess. A new deal is supposedly just around the corner. Though it was also just around the corner a few weeks ago. And a few weeks before that. Just how many corners will we go around until the fabled media deal is truly in view?
More and more signposts have been passed, indicating how close we are to seeing this new deal. Easily the biggest sign among those was the 2025-26 one year media deal for Oregon State and Washington State. The two schools will appear on The CW as well as ESPN and CBS. With that deal in place, it seems likely that the long-term deal that would include the so-far five new schools will shortly follow and could have a similar structure. Octagon, the same organization that is working with the Pac-12 for its long term deal, helped secure the one-year agreement for OSU and WSU.
As much as seeing the steps toward a media deal complete, problems arise from the continued lack of a finalized agreement. Time is of the essence and it’s being spent, wasted if you want to be pessimistic about it. If things were going along an already established timeline, the wait wouldn’t be an issue. But back in February, San Diego State’s athletics director, JD Wicker said the media deal would be finalized by the end of March. The end of March came and then fan and media speculation suggested that it would get done after the Final Four. Then the Final Four came and went.
The Pac-12 is rapidly running out of time it can. Not only do they need a good TV deal in order to justify the tens of millions spent to get the top half of the Mountain West in the door, they also have to add one more team. And according to reporting, that final team won’t get added until after the TV deal gets done. That means the longer it takes for a TV deal to materialize, the less time any new member schools will have to make the transition to the Pac-12. Typically the notice needs to be well over a year, but the eighth school may end up having less than 12 months to secure an exit from their conference. That can end up making it an expensive and messy process.
And just who will that eighth team be? Nearly every Group of Five school west of the Mississippi that isn’t bolted down has been suggested. Lots of schools in Lone Star State, such as Texas State and UTSA. Memphis seems to be the ideal prize, with easily the best combination of football and basketball prowess among teams not already bound for the Pac-12. But potential travel costs and being low-balled by the Pac-12 in earlier talks very much cooled the prospects of the Tigers coming west.
Who this eighth team will be is quite the decision, and one the Pac-12 is having a really hard time with. Again, the impetus around only taking some of the Mountain West schools was to avoid having to share the table with the likes of San Jose State, Nevada or New Mexico. Would you really spend tens of millions to exclude those team just to bring in Texas State? It would be a massive blow to the credibility and goals of the Pac-12 to end up having to settle for a minor G5 program just to fill out the conference roster.
Lately, there’s been a growing chorus of dialogue regarding an additional Mountain West team defecting to the Pac-12: UNLV. The Rebels turned down the initial offer in favor of the cash payout promised to them by the Mountain West, along with the honor of being a “flagship” school in the conference. For UNLV, an eventual move to the Big 12 seems to be the ultimate goal they’re pining for, but that’s a very far-off proposition. And if it’s to be met, being in a conference like the Pac-12 could be the ticket. There’s just one, massive problem.
UNLV can’t leave the Mountain West.
As part of the grant of rights signed by the Rebels, the same one that promised the $10-14 million bribe and flagship status, restricted UNLV by giving the Mountain West the media rights to their games. The agreement lasts until 2032. Can the Rebels break this agreement without bringing down serious legal consequences? Can they even afford it given reports of serious financial struggles within the athletics department? Everyone keeps trying to say it’s possible, and that UNLV is a realistic option, but so many hurdles stand in the way. Further adding urgency to that process is that exit fees jump even higher for Mountain West teams after June 1 if they were to leave for a non-Power 4 conference (i.e. the Pac-12) by July 2026.
The counter-argument to all these facts is that the upcoming mediation will provide an avenue for an exit. Supposedly, the Pac-12 will bully the Mountain West into not only lowering all of the exit fees, but also give UNLV a free or discounted pass to collect and act on a Pac-12 invite. To be honest, that hardly seems to be an option. The Mountain West may not hold a ton of cards in mediation, but they still have some. They have a solvent conference. They have a media deal. They have the grant of rights signed by all the remaining teams. Can the Pac-12 really leverage a cheap exit for UNLV just by threatening to go to court over the extra $40 million in poaching penalties?
Seems unlikely.
There’s a bright future to be captured if the Pac-12 can hit a home run with mediation, expansion and TV deal talks. Challenges lay in the way, but challenges can be overcome. What must be understood is the gravity of the next month. Millions upon millions of dollars have been burned in the furnaces of poaching penalties and lawyers fees, with the promise that the best non-P4 conference will be at the end of all this effort. That promise has yet to be fulfilled. Whether the Pac-12 can fulfill it and whether the conference can finally get a win after half a decade of constant losses, will be what the next few weeks determine.
