It’s refreshing to not be inventing reasons to be positive about this Utah State team. Most teams that end up starting the season 1-6 are on a crash-course for an historically-awful season with a head coach desperately trying to explain that “actually, our team is improving late in the season and is holding together well.” USU head coach Nate Dreiling does not have to conjure up talking points about why his Aggies are improving.
Because they actually are.
Utah State has now won three of its last four games, including a match in Wyoming, a place USU has struggled to get wins in even the best of years (see also, 2018). And while you can bring up the fact those opponents are a combined 9-24, that actually kind of helps prove the point a little. Nine weeks ago on the road against a now 3-8 Temple team (that recently fired its coach), the Aggies collapsed and lost by multiple touchdowns in an utterly humiliating showing. Cut to more recent weeks and teams with very similar records to the Owls are now getting plastered by what is only technically the same Utah State team.
Here’s a look at some of the more drastic changes statistically in the three recent wins and the rest of the losses. Dig deep enough and there are more, but in these are some of the biggest X-factors in any game and you can see how much they vary between USU’s wins and losses against FBS teams this year.
Comparison for USUs win vs losses to FBS teams
| Stat | Avg in FBS Wins | Avg in FBS Losses |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd Down Defense | 39.1% | 47.6% |
| Explosive Plays Allowed (20+ yards) | 4.3 | 6.0 |
| Run Defense | 263.1 | 170.3 |
| Sacks | 4.3 | 1.7 |
| Turnovers Forced | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Turnovers Lost | 1.0 | 2.3 |
| Offense Red Zone TD% | 78.6% | 70.4% |
More of these involved defensive improvements than the offense, but that’s to be expected. The Aggies have the eighth-best yards per game offense in the country so that’s not typically been an issue. Heck, during the four-game stretch against Temple, Boise State, UNLV and New Mexico, the Aggies averaged 516.3 yards a game (which would rank third in the country as its own average) and lost those four games by a combined 69 points. Again, offense wasn’t the issue. But even then, there have been slight improvements to efficiency, such as in the red zone and in turnovers for the offense.
Utah State has found a way to adapt to its circumstances on both sides to produce these improvements. Virtually the entire Week 1 starting defense is currently on the season-ending injury list and yet we find the defense reaching new heights. But it’s not just the defense that’s adapted. The offense has had its issues as well, moving on from Jalen Royals (or, boing back to the start of the year, getting over losing Davon Booth and Robert Briggs before the end of Week 1) to maintain offensive efficiency.
The best example of USU’s adaptability of late, in fact, comes from the offense as arguably the key to victory came from Bryson Barnes entering the game and completely flabbergasting SDSU’s unprepared defense. Barnes has far more ability to run the ball and took full advantage of his talents and the Aztecs’ lack of preparation for said talents and set a USU record with 193 rushing yards, the most by any Aggie QB in history.
Utah State has had little issue with Spencer Petras at QB and his relative lack of rushing skill, but Kyle Cefalo has still dialed up a QB run or two in order to catch teams off guard. He did it on the Aggies’ second play of the game with the team backed up inside its own 10.
The deliberately unblocked DE went 100 percent after the running back, Rahsul Faison, so much so that he even overran Faison’s path which gave Petras the most ideal running scenario possible. The unblocked defender was gone, and Faison was able to become a lead blocker for Petras.
And Petras only got two whole yards on the play.
Here’s what it looked like when Barnes got one of his first carries (excluding a couple third and short situations where the defense was very much keyed in on the run).
San Diego State is so unconcerned about the quarterback running that it’s almost comical. The most obvious case is the unblocked weak side defensive tackle who barely looked at Barnes. But what made this a touchdown were the at least two other SDSU players that spent all their energy on chasing Herschel Turner. Look at the strong side defensive tackle (lined up between USU’s center and right guard and gets double-teamed by them) and the weak side linebacker (the one who gets blocked by USU’s left guard). Both actually had the leverage to fill the gap Barnes ended up running through. But both were so concentrated on getting to Turner that they willingly gave up on the leverage that would have saved a touchdown.
One drive later and Barnes did this again. A slightly different setup, but the same result because of the same reaction from the defense.
Future All-MW defensive end Trey White got suckered into going after the running back and spots the ruse too late. And again, the linebacker willingly moved out of the way of Barnes because he still hadn’t caught on to the fact that Utah State was suddenly able to get chunk yards with its QB’s legs.
These two plays had a massive impact on the game since one obviously resulted in a touchdown, but the other and its 16 yards got the Aggies down the field quickly and set up the highlight of the night that was Barnes’ first TD throw to Grant Page.
A fun example of the chess match in this game, around this specific play, is that SDSU managed to get to halftime having only been burned by that read-option twice. During the break you best bet they talked about it and schemed up some quick adjustments. And they worked since the next four times they saw it the read-option look where Barnes kept it, they gave up a combined 15 yards (as opposed to 35 on the first two attempts). But Cefalo had another trick up his sleeve to get the exact same advantage Barnes had on those other two designed runs. Instead of a typical read-option handoff, he threw in a fake toss with the same principles of the previous read-options, but with a different flavor that meant SDSU wasn’t as dialed in on the adjustments to the play they’d gone over at halftime.
Again, look at the defenders, especially the linebackers, as they willingly vacate the spaces that Barnes will eventually run through because of the fixation on the running back. Though on this play there’s a ton of credit that needs to go to the USU offensive line. They didn’t have the greatest first half, but they owned the latter end of this game and on this play nailed all the crucial blocks to make this a solid nine-yard gain.
Although SDSU got more wise to this play, they never really fully rallied to stop it. Only one of these plays failed to gain positive yards and several of the shorter runs were on third and short situations where Barnes may have only gained two or three yards but still reached the line to gain.
One thing to keep in mind is that this analysis isn’t here to swing opinions in the direction of “Barnes should be the starting QB” or the even more extreme of “Barnes should’ve been the starting QB all along.” Petras has been a very good QB and it’s no accident he’s been the QB while the Aggies have put up the eighth-best offense in the country. What this analysis is, is showing how well Barnes took advantage of a situation and helped rally the Aggies to defeat the Aztecs.
Rumors are already swirling about who the next head coach of Utah State will be before Dreiling has even coached what’s being assumed to be his last game for the Aggies. Whether that assumption is right or wrong is for a discussion for a different time, but if there’s one thing that should guarantee that Dreiling gets another head coaching gig in the very near future, it’s these last few weeks. Everyone could have given up and no one would have batted an eye. But Dreiling, and the players he’s coached, didn’t give up and they’re playing their best football at a time of the season where most people would say it doesn’t matter.
Except it matters to the Aggies. And that’s why they’ve won these back-to-back games.
