It was another solid week for the Mountain West with multiple thrilling games, albeit between teams a little further down the standings. Colorado State clinched a bowl appearance, other fumbled their bowl hopes, and we had an upset among teams in the middle of the table.
Let’s take a quick look at the standings before getting into the rankings and storylines.
Week 10 Mountain West Standings / AP Poll Rankings
| Rk | Team | Record | MW Record | AP Poll | Composite Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boise State | 7-1 | 4-0 | 12th | |
| 2 | Colorado State | 6-3 | 4-0 | – | |
| 3 | UNLV | 6-2 | 2-1 | – | |
| 4 | San Diego State | 3-5 | 2-1 | – | |
| 5 | Fresno State | 5-4 | 3-2 | – | |
| 6 | San Jose State | 5-3 | 3-2 | – | |
| 7 | Hawai’i | 4-5 | 2-2 | – | |
| 8 | Wyoming | 2-7 | 2-3 | – | |
| 9 | New Mexico | 3-6 | 2-3 | – | |
| 10 | Utah State | 2-6 | 1-3 | – | |
| 11 | Nevada | 3-7 | 0-4 | – | |
| 12 | Air Force | 1-7 | 0-4 | – |
Things are starting to get boring at the top as Boise State sits almost uncontested. Almost because Colorado State is also there but the Rams and Broncos won’t play each other so they’re kind of just left staring at each other and waiting to see if either flinches before the end of the season. The Broncos have a better team on paper but the Rams have a very easy schedule the rest of the way to facilitate perhaps the biggest surprise undefeated run in Mountain West play in quite a while.
1. Boise State
- Last Week’s Rank: 1st
- Week 10 Result: 56-24 Win vs San Diego State
- This Week: vs Nevada
The Broncos are far and away the best team in the conference right now and there’s not really a discussion to be had about it any more. Sadly, Ashton Jeanty’s lack of 200+ yard games has made his Heisman hopes dry up a bit. Putting up those in sane numbers was pretty much required to overcome bias against G5 players and he’s not doing that. Never mind that he’s still crossing the century mark every week despite insane numbers of defenders in the box. Heisman voters aren’t exactly watching film. Rather, they watch stats and highlights.
2. UNLV
- Last Week’s Rank: 2nd
- Week 10 Result: Bye
- Next Game: @ Hawai’i
A week off gives UNLV a chance to regroup after a crushing loss to Boise State. It ended any chance for the easier road to the conference title game and most hopes for a spot in the college football playoff. All those hopes now lie in other team’s hands. There are still things the Rebels can control, though, and it’s that they can put themselves in the right spot to potentially pick up the pieces if teams ahead of them in postseason races fall apart. That process begins this week with a Hawai’i team that’s already begun playing spoiler to a degree.
3. Colorado State
- Last Week’s Rank: 4th
- Week 10 Result: 38-21 Win @ Nevada
- This Week:
Most talking heads and social media minds will choose to ignore the Rams since their caliber of wins hasn’t exactly been what one might call stellar. Colorado State has one win over an FBS team with a winning record, San Jose State. But you also can’t ignore the face they’re 4-0 and while I’m not going to die on the hill of CSU being the third best team in the conference, has anyone really made a better claim? Fresno State has stumbled a few times too many and Hawai’i hasn’t done better since they’re not undefeated in MW play.
4. Hawai’i
- Last Week’s Rank: 6th
- Week 10 Result: 21-20 Win @ Fresno State
- This Week:
Perhaps moving the Warriors into the top four is a bridge too far, but moving up just one spot over SJSU and leaving them behind Fresno State who they just beat (and was due to move down from third for that loss alone) didn’t quite feel right. So, Hawai’i gets to be a top four team and is now on the verge of bowl eligibility after two straight wins.
5. Fresno State
- Last Week’s Rank: 3rd
- Week 10 Result:
- This Week:
The Bulldogs were poised to solidify its top three spot and be the biggest threat to a Colorado State title game appearance, but a lot of that is now in question after falling to Hawai’i at home. Mikey Keene went from a major bounce-back game against SJSU (275 yards, three TDs) to a fairly anemic outing (157 yards, one TD). The offense didn’t score in the second half, only getting a pick-six that was almost enough to win the game before the Warriors’ last-minute TD.
If bowl eligibility was the goal, FSU is well within reach of that and virtually guaranteed to do so with just one win needed and Air Force up next on the schedule. But this will probably go down as
6. San Jose State
- Last Week’s Rank: 5th
- Week 10 Result: Bye
- This Week: @ Oregon State
A week off was well-timed for the Spartans as they now hit a crucial stretch. Ken Niumatalolo had this team riding high through the first week of October, and after a win over Wyoming a bowl game seemed virtually guaranteed sitting at 5-2 with five games left to play. That would be quite the accomplishment for SJSU as it would be the first time in program history that it made a bowl game three seasons in a row (the last two seasons were the first time they’d gone back-to-back bowls since the 1980s). Except now, following the loss to Fresno State, things look a lot less certain.
San Jose State’s final four games feature three teams that have a .500 record or better. Two of those opponents are UNLV and Boise State, pretty much universally seen as the best two teams in the conference. The Spartans’ bowl hopes may come down to the regular season finale against Stanford (which figures to be the easiest matchup since the Cardinal are 2-7 right now).
7. Nevada
- Last Week’s Rank: 7th
- Week 10 Result: 21-38 Loss vs Colorado State
- This Week: @ No. 12 Boise State
At one point I saw the Wolf Pack as a sneaky-good team. They’ve been close in games against pretty solid and decent teams, from ranked SMU (29-24) to SJSU (35-31), Fresno State (24-21) and Oregon State (42-37). But the last two weeks things have just fallen apart. Before the game against Hawai’i, the Wolf Pack had lost just one game by more than a single touchdown. They’ve now lost back-to-back games by three-plus scores. They’re also now officially out of bowl contention, which was once maybe a distant possibility if they’d won the games against Hawai’i and Colorado State (which, again, would have seemed winnable given how competitive Nevada had been against better teams)
8. San Diego State
- Last Week’s Rank: 8th
- Week 10 Result: 24-56 Loss @ Boise State
- This Week: vs New Mexico
There’s not really a whole lot you can take away from SDSU in its game against Boise State. The Broncos were better. We kind of knew that. So just roll with it and move on. The Aztecs still have a decent shot at a bowl game if they can win three of their last four. Three of those opponents being New Mexico, Utah State and Air Force which are three of the bottom four in the MW standings (the other opponent for SDSU being UNLV).
9. New Mexico
- Last Week’s Rank: 9th
- Week 10 Result: 45-49 Loss vs Wyoming
- This Week: @ San Diego State
All of the momentum gained from the three straight wins over New Mexico State, Air Force and Utah State has vanished as the Lobos are on the brink of being eliminated from a bowl game with three games left to play (and No. 20 Washington State being one of them). A win over Wyoming instead of a loss would have been huge in that equation, but giving up 49 points to a Cowboys offense that has been awful (though a bit more on that later) may be a sign that a bowl was not meant to be for Bronco Mendenhall’s first year with UNM.
10. Utah State
- Last Week’s Rank: 10th
- Week 10 Result: Bye
- This Week: @ No. 20 Washington State
No game and no change for Utah State, even though the team ahead of them lost and the team below won. The Aggies lost to the Lobos and beat Wyoming so it really only makes sense to keep the rankings as they stand unless you really want to be splitting some hairs that don’t really deserve to be split. The Aggies are technically still within range of a bowl appearance, but it’d take a miracle. Specifically, the miracle would be to heal the roughly 13 season-ending injuries they’ve had to deal with.
11. Wyoming
- Last Week’s Rank: 11th
- Week 10 Result: 49-45 Win @ New Mexico
- This Week:
Have the Cowboys found their QB of the future in freshman Kaden Anderson? Perhaps. This season is something they’ll look to put behind them real quick, but there’s a few more weeks to try and develop some momentum for next season.
12. Air Force
- Week 9 Game: Bye
- This Week: @ No. 21 Army
Not much new to report with Air Force. A bye gives it the chance to regroup somewhat, but the Falcons’ next game is against ranked Army who will be well-prepared for their style of play. It’ll probably be the last hurrah for Air Force’s bowl hopes.
The following were the official Mountain West players of the week on offense, defense, special teams, and the top freshman.
𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤 𝟗 𝐏𝐥𝐚𝐲𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤 👀 pic.twitter.com/ElfoBamZla
— Mountain West (@MountainWest) October 28, 2024
Offensive Player of the Week — Maddux Madsen (QB), Boise State
- 24/32 passing, 307 yards, 4 pass TDs
All eyes are justifiably on Ashton Jeanty, and San Diego State put all eyes and bodies in the box to prevent Jeanty from having a top-tier performance. With so many players selling out on the run, Madsen made easy work of the Aztec defense to put up some of the best numbers of his career.
Defensive Player of the Week — Phoenix Jackson (LB), Fresno State
- 9 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1 forced fumble, 1 INT (pick-six)
This great defensive performance would ultimately be for nothing as the Bulldogs still lost. But Jackson’s pick-six was nearly enough for the win as it marked the only score of the second half for Fresno State.
Special Teams Player of the Week — Jordan Noyes (K), Colorado State
- 3/3 on field goals (21, 35, and career-long 60 yards), 3/3 on PATs
Noyes also earned some recognition from the Lou Groza award committee this week, and just seeing a video of his new career-long 60 yard field goal you can see how good Noyes is.
60, yes 𝟔𝟎 yarder from @jordannoyes23 🤯
Tied for the second-longest FG in program history!
📺 CBS Sports#Stalwart x #RamGrit🐏 https://t.co/Kt8xgPiAzR pic.twitter.com/Ezap2FnHEk
— Colorado State Football (@CSUFootball) November 3, 2024
Freshman of the Week — Kaden Anderson (QB), Wyoming
- 20/29 passing, 342 pass yards, 3 pass TD (1 INT), 1 rush TD
Four total touchdowns and a 300-yard passing game were the fruits of Kaden Anderson’s first start, along with the second win of the season for Wyoming. A well-deserved honor who also really should have gotten consideration for the offensive player of the week award too (not to take away from Madsen).
Kaden Anderson stars, draws questions of “why not sooner?”
Anderson won the starting QB job with Wyoming during the Cowboys’ loss to Utah State two weeks back by proving he was the better option on the field in a day where both he and Week 1 starter Evan Svoboda were given time on the field against the Aggies. Svoboda went 2 of 7 for just 12 yards and an interception that evening while Anderson was 15 of 24 for 182 yards.
The Monday after that loss. Cowboys head coach Jay Sawvel said Anderson would be the starter going forward, a decision that massively paid off.
As already noted above, Anderson put up star-level numbers, only slightly dampened by the fact New Mexico has given up those types of numbers against most teams. But Svoboda hadn’t been able to come close to that efficiency against good, bad, or ugly defenses, so the fact Anderson did is a feather in his cap regardless.
Sawvel told the media he regretted the decision to not make the switch at QB earlier, letting Svoboda start _ games during which the Cowboys started the season 1-7. The reasoning behind his decision seemed to boil down to being enamored with Svoboda’s physical gifts and advice from former head coach Craig Bohl to focus on keeping the Svoboda at Wyoming. That and justifying Svoboda’s poor performance on the quality of defense and injuries around the QB. But the evidence that Anderson should be the starter continued to pile up and the choice had to be made.
Bowl hopes plummet for a lot of teams
A pretty consistent theme when I went through the power rankings was that a lot of teams saw their bowl hopes drop through the floor, though only Nevada was officially removed from contention. The Wolf Pack join Air Force and Wyoming as teams we can definitively say will not be playing games in mid-December. But we can also pretty confidently say teams like San Diego State, New Mexico, Utah State are also very, very likely to not be bowling (granted, we could have said that a few weeks before, but just go with me for a minute). San Jose State and Hawai’i are pretty likely to go, but far from guaranteed.
Only three Mountain West teams have assured themselves a spot in bowl games — Boise State, Colorado State and UNLV — and they’ll likely be joined by at least one or two others, but the odds aren’t super high for more. Here’s the KFord projection odds for each of the rest of the MW teams to reach at least six wins.
- Fresno State – 94%
- San Jose State – 75%
- Hawai’i – 53%
- San Diego State – 28%
- New Mexico – 1%
- Utah State – Less than 1%
- Nevada – Less than 1%
New Mexico and Nevada’s losses this week were probably the most damaging for any team’s chances. SDSU’s loss also didn’t help, but that was an expected loss. The Wolf Pack and Lobos each had decent chances to advance their records and failed. Their end-fo-season prospects took a big hit because of that.
Thrilling victory by Hawai’i over Fresno State
Pretty much all of the games this week went about as expected. Boise State beat up SDSU, Air Force lost to Army, Colorado State beat Nevada (maybe by a larger score than expected, but still the anticipated winner) and the Wyoming/New Mexico game was close. If any of us went back in time and told our past selves the results of those games, no one would bat an eye.
They probably would do so if you told them Hawai’i would beat Fresno State.
It’s not like the Bulldogs are or were world-beaters. But a 5-3 team going against a 3-5 team, especially at home, you’d expect the team with the better record would pull away and get the W.
Not so.
Fresno State started out well enough, building a 20-7 lead in the third quarter, but without any offensive production in the second half, it left the door open for just two Hawai’i drives to produce a comeback. Three of Fresno State’s _ drives of the second half went three-and-out, with another lasting just four plays. The only drive that made it longer than 28 yards down the field was the Bulldogs’ last-gasp drive, and that included a 15-yard targeting penalty on the Warriors.
Hawai’i did far better in the second half than in the first. An 87-yard touchdown drive early in the fourth quarter made the Warriors believe as they made it within one score. The comeback almost fizzled as a potential go-ahead drive ended with a fumble. Fresno State took over with 1:49 on the clock, but that’s where the Bulldogs’ poor offense kicked in. They went three-and-out, Hawai’i stopped the clock with timeouts and then took the ensuing drive 47 yards, scoring a touchdown with 15 seconds left to seal it.
