Week 9 Mountain West Watch – Broncos’ playoff resume, Wyoming’s referee troubles, Rams a MW contender? | Sports

Week 9 featured numerous thrilling games in the Mountain West as three contests involving MW teams finished within one score, including a walk-off field goal. Bowl hopes are realistic for as many as seven teams in the conference, whereas a few weeks ago they were sitting pretty low. There’s even very real expectations for a playoff bid coming from the Mountain West with Boise State maintaining its win streak and upping its rank in the AP Poll.

There’s plenty to go over in the return of Mountain West Watch, including a bit of a revamp to the format (at least later). We’ve seen the Broncos staking their claim on a playoff spot, Colorado State is looking to play spoiler, Wyoming’s struggles with referees and some pretty big games from players across the conference.

Aside from Boise State, it doesn’t seem anyone is going to have a great chance of sticking in the AP Poll until maybe the last weeks of the season. The Rebels remain in the AP Poll radar even after the loss to Boise State, but it’s unlikely they make a jump back into the top 25 given voting patterns. UNLV could win out but given the lackluster strength of schedule for those games, there’s not much hope. And that’s crucial to the Rebels’ playoff hopes, slim as they are at this point. Raising the ranking is crucial if they want to beat out the AAC title winner (whoever it is in the three-way race between Navy, Army and Tulane) if UNLV were to win the Mountain West Title game.

The fun bit about the standings is seeing Colorado State and San Diego State so high despite not really being seen as contenders (though we’re going to talk about the Rams potentially being in the title game later on).

1. Boise State

• Week 9 game: 29-24 Win @ UNLV
• This Week:

In the Mountain West’s marquee matchup of the week, Boise State came out on top with a gutsy road win. UNLV jumped out to a 10-3 lead but the Broncos rallied to go up 20-10 at halftime and then quickly rallied when UNLV took a 24-23 lead late in the third quarter. Ashton Jeanty didn’t put up his usual video game numbers, but was still arguably the game MVP with his 128 rushing yards and one touchdown.

2. UNLV

• Week 9 game: 24-29 Loss vs Boise State
• Next Game: Bye

The Rebels fought about as valiantly as possible against what’s becoming more and more of an apparent juggernaut Boise State team. UNLV held an early 10-3 lead, blew it, but still rallied to take a 24-23 lead into the fourth quarter. But it wasn’t to be as the Rebels couldn’t pull off playing spoiler to the Broncos’ playoff hopes. A rematch in the conference title game is still very much a possibility, though, but it will require help (see below).

3. Fresno State

• Week 9 Game: 33-10 Win vs San Jose State
• This Week: vs Hawaii

This week saw the Bulldogs reclaim some of the lost luster that came from back-to-back losses against UNLV and Washington State followed by an iffy 24-21 victory at Nevada. Mikey Keene looked far more like his early-season self with three touchdowns (and his first game with more TDs than INTs since Sept. 21) and the Fresno State defense dominated, forcing four turnovers. The win also keeps Fresno State’s conference title hopes alive, though that would require help from UNLV’s upcoming opponents.

4. Colorado State

• Week 9 Game: 17-6 Win vs New Mexico
• This Week: @ Nevada

The Rams have become a very interesting team. By no means have they shown they should be considered a conference contender, but now at 3-0 in conference play and other teams sliding with unexpected losses Colorado State seems to have found itself in the second tier of Mountain West teams. This week’s win over New Mexico was quite the showcase in defensive prowess as the Lobos had scored 50.6 points per game over the last three weeks. But against the Rams, a mere six points and zero touchdowns. Heck of a performance by CSU.

5. San Jose State

• Week 9 Game: 10-33 Loss @ Fresno State
• This Week: Bye

A few weeks ago the Spartans were able to convince some that they were contenders for the Mountain West if they were able to get some key wins over the likes of Boise State, UNLV and Fresno State. Well, a few weeks later and the Spartans still have a chance to take down the Broncos and Rebels, but they’ve lost two conference games at Colorado State and to the Bulldogs. SJSU are by no means a bad team, just one win away from bowl eligibility, but they’ve lost most of the sparkle from earlier this year.

6. Hawaii

• Week 9 Game: 34-13 Win vs Nevada
• This Week: @ Fresno State

The Warriors bounced back in a huge way this past week. They’d lost five of the last six games and were winless not only in conference play but against FBS teams in general. The best news they’d gotten was an invite to be a full member of the Mountain West and not just a football-only member. A dominant win over Nevada shifted the tide a bit and keeps hopes for a bowl game in the realm of somewhat realistic.

7. Nevada

• Week 9 Game: 13-34 Loss @ Hawaii
• This Week: vs Colorado State

Nevada had been a team looking like it was on the verge of a breakout. If you’d told me a team would win the Nevada/Hawaii game 34-13 I would have, without hesitation, said it was the Wolf Pack. A win over Oregon State plus narrow losses to San Jose State and Fresno State made it look like only a matter of time before UNR turned the corner. Instead they turned right around and took two steps in the wrong direction.

8. San Diego State

• Week 9 Game: 26-29 Loss vs Washington State
• This Week: at No. 15 Boise State

It’s possible SDSU will come to heavily regret the loss to Washington State, giving up a 12-point fourth-quarter lead to the visiting Cougars. If the Aztecs have one more slip-up, it could spell doom for their bowl hopes. Mathematically, they have every chance since they’re 3-4. Technically, they’re still undefeated in Mountain West play, so they control their own destiny for their first title game appearance since 2021. But that’s assuming they can beat Boise State (this week) and UNLV (on Now. 16). Neither are too likely, which would put SDSU at six losses. The remaining games — New Mexico (Nov. 8), at Utah State (Nov. 23) and Air Force (Nov. 30) — are all very winnable, but the margin for error is much smaller now.

9. New Mexico

• Week 9 Game: 6-17 Loss @ Colorado State
• This Week: vs Wyoming

New Mexico’s three-game win streak was snapped in a weird way. They’d won three straight by simply scoring so much that it didn’t matter how much their defense gave up. Scores like their 50-45 win over Utah State were becoming the norm (the previous two weeks were wins of 52-37 over Air Force and 50-40 over New Mexico State).

That made losing 17-6 a bit of a headscratcher. Not only did the Lobos not score 50 points for the first time in a month, but they also only allowed 17. Kind of a mystery, but stranger things have happened.

10. Utah State

• Week 9 Game: 27-25 Win @ Wyoming
• This Week: Bye

The Aggies finally broke its losing streak which had reached six games and spanned 56 days by getting a thrilling win over Wyoming. It was a win perhaps even more sweet given how close Utah State was to victory last week before losing the lead late against New Mexico. Beating the Cowboys isn’t really going to salvage the season, but it was really nice for the Aggies to get that win and perform when it mattered.

11. Wyoming

• Week 9 Game: 25-27 Loss vs Utah State
• This Week: @ New Mexico

One could look at the box score of Saturday’s USU/Wyoming game and confidently assume the Cowboys were the better team for much of that evening. But when it mattered most, Wyoming couldn’t quite execute and it officially ended its hopes at a bowl game.

12. Air Force

• Week 9 Game: Bye
• This Week: @ No. 21 Army

Not much new to report with Air Force. A bye gives it the chance to regroup somewhat, but the Falcons’ next game is against ranked Army who will be well-prepared for their style of play. It’ll probably be the last hurrah for Air Force’s bowl hopes.

The following were the official Mountain West players of the week on offense, defense, special teams, and the top freshman.

𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤 𝟗 𝐏𝐥𝐚𝐲𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤 👀 pic.twitter.com/ElfoBamZla

— Mountain West (@MountainWest) October 28, 2024

Offensive Player of the Week — Brayden Schager (QB), Hawaii

• 14/25 for 153 pass yards, 1 INT
• 19 rush attempts, 120 rush yards, 4 rush TD

Schager hasn’t necessarily been a running quarterback in his career, usually only being a 50/50 shot at having positive rushing yards at the end of the game (overcoming any yards lost to sacks) and he’d only ever had 10 rush attempts in about a quarter of his games. But against Nevada he went off, carrying the ball a career-high 19 times to set by far new career highs in rushing yards and touchdowns. He became only the third QB this year to have 100+ yards and four rushing TDs in the same game. He’s also the first Hawaii player to have four rush TDs since 2010 and first QB at Hawaii to do so since 1995.

Defensive Player of the Week — Cam Lockridge (CB), Fresno State

Lockridge accounted for two of the four interceptions the Bulldogs forced to go with what was also a career-high seven tackles. Obviously had a huge role in holding San Jose State to more than 22 points below the Spartans’ usual scoring average.

Special Teams Player (and Freshman) of the Week — Tanner Cragun (K), Utah State

• 2/2 on field goals (30 and 40 yards), 3/3 on PATs

A two-for-one special was in order for Cragun as the redshirt freshman kicker grabbed both the Special Teams and Freshman of the Week honors. He kicked a career-long field goal of 40 yards, which was the walk-off field goal for the Aggies. It was the first walk-off game-winner for Utah State since 2019. Cragun tallied nine total points with two field goals and three PATs.

Colorado State’s odds at getting to the Mountain West Title Game

Are the Rams the second-best team in the Mountain West? Pretty much every metric and human ranking says no. But the standings say they’re not only second-best, but in a tie for first with 15th-ranked Boise State.

In a stroke of scheduling providence (at least to the Rams), Colorado State will not face either Boise State or UNLV this season. It means that UNLV, the consensus second-best team in the Mountain West, does not control its own destiny for a spot in the conference title game. The Rebels will have a chance to hand a loss to San Diego State (which is 2-0) but will have to hope somebody defeats CSU if they want a chance at a rematch against Boise State (assuming the Broncos go undefeated in conference play themselves).

Colorado State pretty much has to go undefeated to make it to the title game unless UNLV (and/or San Diego State) picks up a loss. The Nov. 23 matchup between Colorado State and Fresno State could be decisive, assuming no surprise losses for any of the contending teams. A Rams win would spell disaster for both the Rebels and Bulldogs with a Fresno State win probably sealing a rematch between Boise State and UNLV (since UNLV has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Fresno State and would presumably have the same 6-1 record).

It’d be quite the surprise, at least based on preseason expectations, to see CSU in the title game and even now it’s fairly improbably. The likely required 7-0 conference record has only 6 percent chance of happening according to KFord projections, with 5-2 being the most likely by the same metric (41 percent, as opposed to 28 percent for 6-1 and 22 percent for 4-3).

Mountain West “reprimands” Jay Sawvel

Wyoming’s head coach wasn’t happy with the referees during his team’s loss to Utah State. There were multiple critical calls that didn’t go the Cowboys’ way. The first was this pass interference call. For context, had the incomplete pass stood, it would have marked the fourth straight three-and-out for USU, and given Wyoming the ball back

Not only did the Aggies get the first down with the DPI call, Sawvel picked up an unsportsmanlike penalty for arguing with the officials (seen at the tail end of this clip).

Sawvel and pretty much any living, breathing Wyoming staffer or fan, was equally unhappy about a lack of a targeting call when USU cornerback DJ Graham hit Wyoming receiver Tyler King square in the helmet with his shoulder. The hit caused a fumble, sent King out of the game because of the presumed head trauma, and killed a promising Cowboys drive.

Head official Cal McNeill clarified the no-call after the game in a statement.

“The play in question was reviewed for all elements of targeting and did not meet the requirements for rule 9-1-3,” the statement said. “The offensive player was a runner, not a defenseless player. In that situation, in order for it to be targeting, it would have had to have been leading with the crown of the helmet.”

Still, the perception wasn’t good. Rules designed for player’s safety to avoid nasty hits to the head didn’t prevent a nasty hit to the head, leading Sawvel to speak negatively of the officiating in his postgame comments. After saying he regretted getting assessed the unsportsmanlike conduct penalty he made a comment saying “I’d say I’m a horsesh*t head coach, and I think we’ve had some horsesh*t officiating.”

The day after Sawvel’s minor outburst, the Mountain West released a short statement that issued a “public reprimand” of Sawvel’s conduct which broke rule 4.2-e (publicly criticizing or disparaging a game official). The assessment of a reprimand as opposed to anything else is outlined by rule 4.4.5, which indicates a first offence is only punishable by a reprimand, with further offences leading to suspension.

Boise State’s playoff odds skyrocket

Although the path to the playoffs isn’t completely controllable by teams, the Broncos have done just about everything they can to ensure they’re one of the five conference champions to receive an automatic bid, or at least retain all control over whether or not they get that bid.

Using the AP Poll as a fill-in for the yet-to-be-released College Football Playoff Ranking, the Broncos are comfortably in the fifth auto-bid spot. The first-place teams, including current ties, in all the Power Four conferences have higher AP ranks than Boise State. But the highest G5 team is below the Broncos.

• ACC — #11 Clemson
• Big 12 — #9 BYU and #11 Iowa State (yes, tied with Clemson in the poll)
• Big Ten — #1 Oregon and #13 Indiana
• SEC — #10 Texas A&M
• American — #21 Army
• Mountain West — #15 Boise State

Side note: A misperception of the rule is that there’s a designated Group of Five slot with the top G5 champion by the CFP Ranking getting that bid. Functionally, yes, that’s exactly what it is but it’s technically just the top five conference champions according to the ranking regardless of which conference that is. Theoretically, a Power Four champion could be excluded if ranked below to G5 champions but that’s not realistically going to happen.

The first CFP Ranking will be released on Nov. 5 and it based on its previous P4 bias, the Broncos are probably going to take a hit with some of the lower ranked first-place teams maybe getting a boost. With how close Boise State is to some of these P4 conference leaders, there’s a world in which the Broncos could end up as the four seed in the playoff and get the bye that comes with it. One can imagine the selection committee isn’t fond of the idea and will take the necessary steps to avoid that, whether it’s blatantly biased or not.

Regardless of whether or not BSU can make its way into a top four seed or not, it certainly has a high degree of control over its destiny to make the playoffs. The only notable obstacles at this point are UNLV, Army, and Boise State itself. UNLV is the presumed key Mountain West obstacle, given the Rebels are the most likely opponent in the MW title game. Army is currently the highest-ranked AAC team, though it has Navy and Tulane to fend off (Army is 6-0 in the AAC, Navy and Tulane are goth 4-0). The wild card is Army’s upcoming game against No. 8 Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish dispatched Navy last week 51-14, but if Army prevails it might put them in range of being around Boise State. Key word it might, it’s hard to predict what the playoff committee will do.