Utah State Football vs #12 Utah: Preview, Predictions, How to Watch | Sports

LOGAN — For the first time since 2015, Utah State and the University of Utah will meet on a football field. A lot has changed for both programs since the last time this series was a regular thing. The Aggies have established themselves as a solid Mountain West team and the Utes have gone from a team struggling to fit into the Pac-12 to a legitimate College Football Playoff candidate in the Big 12.

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Game Info:

• Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. (Mountain Time)
• Location: Merlin Olsen Field (Logan, UT)
• TV Broadcast: CBS Sports Network
• Radio: KVNU (102.1 FM, 610 AM)

KVNU Aggie Gameday pregame show with Stockton Jewkes and J.D. Walker: Begins 12:30 p.m. on 102.1 FM, 610 AM

KVNU Aggie Call Postgame: Starts immediately after Coach Nate Dreiling’s post-game comments.

• Text (435) 554-1175 or call (435) 753-5868 during the pregame or postgame show to give your thoughts and reactions for the game.

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Utah State Depth Chart

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Top Storylines/Matchups

Cam Rising “unlikely” to play

The Utes’ star quarterback injured his throwing hand during the team’s win over Baylor and is “unlikely” to play against the Aggies according to a report from Action Network’s Brett McMurphy. The seventh-year quarterback threw for more than 5,000 yards along with 46 touchdowns across the 2021 and 2022 seasons, but has yet remain healthy enough to lead Utah to the elite offenses it had those two years. It is expected that Rising will return next week when the Utes face Oklahoma State.

In lieu of Rising, the Utes will turn to true freshman Isaac Wilson, a promising former four-star prospect who starred at Corner Canyon in Draper, UT. But when filling in for Rising last week against Baylor, the offense sputtered, failing to score a single point after the freshman began taking snaps and gaining only 85 net yards on offense in the second half. Wilson completed 4 of 9 passes for just 30 yards. That contrasted a hot start to the game in which Utah scored 17 points in the first quarter along.

Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham was not particularly pleased with how his team fared when Rising left the game.

“We were doing some really good things and then Cam went out and everything kind of deflated, which was disappointing. Exact opposite should happen,” Whittingham said. “If you lose a key player, then everyone else needs to pick up their game and pick up the slack. It’s not just on Isaac Wilson to come in and pick it up. It’s everyone around him. And so that’s something that was probably the most disappointing thing in the game is just the way we let the wind completely come out of our sails.”

Rising has accounted for all but one of the touchdowns scored by the Utes’ offense this season, leaving the entire rest of the offense some big shoes to fill to ensure they can score against the Aggies on Saturday.

Petras more likely to play

In almost complete contrast to Rising, Aggies’ injured QB1 Spencer Petras will probably make his return on Saturday, though nothing has been confirmed. In his Monday press conference, USU interim head coach Nate Dreiling said Petras is “going to have a legit chance of playing.”

“We thought we’d maybe have him last week,” Dreiling said, “but [he] just didn’t progress as fast as we want.”

Petras completed 10 of 15 passes for 145 yards, but also had two interceptions, in his Aggie debut against Robert Morris. However, he left the game after scrambling out of the pocket. Later in the game, he came out of the locker room wearing street clothes and a walking boot on his foot.

Were Petras to not play, Bryson Barnes would start for a second straight week. In his one-and-a-half game’s worth of playing time this year, Barnes has completed 29 of 48 passes for 301 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Should Barnes remain the starter for now, Dreiling has confidence in his QB2.

“We know we have a tough quarterback,” Dreiling. “He always prepares like he’s a starter. And just like the Robert Morris game, he came in as the backup, but didn’t miss a beat and finished with a ton of yards in the air and on the ground. So he gives you a lot with his athleticism on what you can do and some QB run games, which is hard to prepare for. But even more so I think the way he carries himself. He has so much confidence that the players feed off of and it’s contagious.”

Utes aiming to establish the run

Perhaps even more so with Rising not likely to play, Utah will look to get its stable of running backs heavily involved and get a lot of yards via the ground game. Whittingham noted his standard of reaching 5.0 yards per carry, a benchmark the Utes just missed out on against Baylor (4.6).

“When our run game is really clicking, we’re up there 230, 240, 250 yards. And we haven’t been able to achieve that yet this year,” Whittingham said. “I think we did fit the run game up better with the block scheme (against Baylor). Obviously the degree of difficulty was higher. It was a pretty stout front seven. But I still think there’s more for us in the run game.”

Utah running back Micah Bernard eclipsed that standard in his own right — and drew praise from Whittingham in the same breath as the previous quote — as he ran for 118 yards on 19 carries (6.2 per carry). Bernard is the leading rusher for the Utes this season with 24 carries for 151 yards, though he has yet to reach the end zone on the ground (but he does have a receiving TD). Aside from Bernard, who has yet to receive the tag of being the Utes’ top running back despite two solid performance, Utah has Dijon Stanley and Mike Mitchell who have each shown promise as rushers.

The Aggies have struggled to stop the run early in the season, an issue that predates the current defensive regime and many of the players on the current squad. In the first half against Robert Morris, USU allowed 103 rushing yards, though it clamped down in the second half. But against USC, the Aggies couldn’t stop the ground game in pretty much any scenario and wound up yielding 249 yards on the ground. USU’s players have had the emphasis on stopping the run drilled into them the last few weeks.

“We emphasize that we have to be big on stopping the run,” USU linebacker Clyde Washington said. “A lot of effort and responsibility needs to be towards that.”

Aggies trying to avoid second straight shutout

Utah State were shut out by USC in its last outing and will aim to avoid the embarrassment of putting up a goose egg on its side of the scoreboard. The Aggies haven’t been shut out in back-to-back games since 2006 when they were actually shut out in three straight games — 20-0 at Arkansas, 48-0 vs Utah and 38-0 at BYU spanning.

Finding a way to score against the Utah defense will be a tough challenge, especially given how much more statistically impressive the Utes have been (granted, in an easier strength of schedule). Utah ranks seventh in the nation in total defense, having given up an average of 186.5 yards in games against Southern Utah and Baylor. The Trojans, meanwhile, rank 65th even after holding USU to just 190 yards of total offense last Saturday.

Probably the most important factor in USU keeping its offense going, and the thing that may have the most impact on whether the Aggies can have a positive result, is the offensive line and their efforts in protecting the quarterback, be it Petras or Barnes. The O-line yielded three sacks and 11 overall pressures on Barnes last Saturday, hamstringing the passing game and the offense as a result.

The Aggies actually ran the ball decently well, with Rahsul Faison running for 54 yards and Herschel Turner getting 38 yards in just 17 combined attempts. But when short runs happened and second or third and long situations presented themselves, USU couldn’t protect Barnes enough to let him freely sling the ball around the field. The best the Aggies could do was give Barnes a bevy of short passes, which had a small amount of success but was not sustainable for the entire game.

Utah’s front seven is among the best in the country, able to shut down the run and rush the passer (the Utes have a eight sacks on the year which ranks eighth in FBS), things that Dreiling noted go hand-in-hand.

“(The Utes) play the run probably better than any team in the country,” Dreiling said. “They’re in third and eight and third and nine all the time, and now they have pass rushers that can roll off the edge. So it goes to a lot more than just being able to rush the passer. They earn the right to rush the passer because of how well they play the run.”

Stats & Facts to Know

• The first-ever meeting between Utah State and Utah happened in 1892, a game the Aggies on 12-0.
  • This game was also the first intercollegiate football game played in the state of Utah, making it the oldest rivalry in the Beehive State
• In the most recent game played between USU and Utah on Merlin Olsen Field — occurring on Sept. 7, 2012 — the Aggies won 27-20 in overtime, breaking a 12-game losing streak to the Utes.
  • The 2012 win is the only time Utah State has defeated Utah in the 21st century, with the previous win dating back to 1997 (USU also won in 1996).
• The three most recent matchups were all relatively close games, finishing 27-20 in 2012, 30-26 in 2013 and 24-14 in 2015 (the latter two games both happening at Utah).
• Utah State has an all-time record of 6-66 against teams ranked in the AP Poll, including being 0-38 against teams ranked 15th or better
  • USU has lost 10 of its last 11 games against ranked opponents, dating back to 2018
  • The one win vs a ranked team since 2018 was against No. 19 San Diego State in the 2021 Mountain West championship game
  • Five of Utah State’s six all-time wins over ranked teams have come since 2012 (the other was in 1991).
• There are 79 players combined on the rosters of Utah and USU who are from the state of Utah, 36 on the Aggies and 43 on the Utes.
• Four Aggies were previously at Utah — Kyrese White, Jadon Pearson, Bryson Barnes and Tanner Cragun.
• The Utes have one player who began his career at USU, defensive end Paul Fitzgerald
• There are 68 connections between various Utah and Utah State players, either by being teammates at a previous college or high school, or attending the same college or high school.

Game Prediction

Eric Frandsen and Jason Walker both gave their predictions for the game on the Full Court Press (4-6 p.m. weekdays on 106.9 FM, 1390 AM The FAN). Vote on who you think will be the winner and by how much in the poll below.

Eric Frandsen’s Prediction — Utah 31, Utah State 13

• Correct winner predictions this year — 2/2
• *Score prediction accuracy rating — .100

“I think Utah State learns a few things from their trip to the Coliseum, improves and plays better offensively than they did [against USC]. I think they also improve some things defensively. But in the end Utah is just too much. Even though they’ve got a true freshman quarterback who right now isn’t very dynamic, I think they’ll still be able to do enough offensively. Not all of those scores will be from offense, I fear.”

Jason Walker’s Prediction — Utah 37, Utah State 6

• Correct winner predictions this year — 2/2
• Score prediction accuracy rating — .200

“I do think they’ll be a little bit better on offense. Being at home, having Petras in. They’ll move the ball a little bit more, have probably have much better yardage totals [than they did against USC], but not too much to more to show for in in the end zone. I do they’re gonna hold to Utah to a lot fewer points than USC…the offense may not be able to be as dynamic as the offensive is capable of with Cam Rising in. “

*Score prediction accuracy rating is on scale of 0-1 and measures predicted score and winner for all games so far and the deviation of predictions from the actual scores of the games.