The last five seasons has seen a series once dominated completely by one side, become the battleground for Mountain West supremacy. Utah State and San Diego State have faced off 13 times since the 2018-19 season, splitting the series 7-6 overall in favor of the Aztecs. Four of those 13 matchups have taken place in the Mountain West Tournament title game, with those games split an even 2-2.
Whether or not it’s the most intense rivalry of the conference, it has been the most important.
With the halfway point of Mountain West play nearly upon us, the usual dynamic of this matchup is reversed. Usually the Aztecs are ranked and atop the Mountain West with the Aggies not too far behind. This year it’s Utah State ranked 17th in the AP Poll and holds first place in the conference with San Diego State hot on its heels. Those facts could quickly change, though, as the conference has already seen multiple power shifts with different teams taking their turn at the top of the ladder (Colorado State, New Mexico and even San Diego State have all been seen as the consensus top team in the MW).
If Utah State wants to lay claim on being the best in the conference, it’ll have to do something it hasn’t done since 1998 — win at Viejas Arena.
The home of the Aztecs has been a place of continual failure for the Aggies. Since that 63-60 victory over the Aztecs a quarter century ago, the Aggies have gone 0-9 in games played on SDSU’s home court, all nine of those contests having been played since USU joined the Mountain West.
Not only has Utah State failed to win at San Diego State since 1998, it’s only lost be less than 10 points once in that span (a 68-63 loss in 2019). The average margin of victory for SDSU in these games is 15.
“Not a lot of words need to be said with their tradition and success they’ve had,” Sprinkle said. “Everybody knows about them. We know what we’re in for.”
As if the promise of another competitive edition of this growing rivalry weren’t enough, this game will provide the biggest player vs player matchup, literally in some ways. The conference’s two best forwards, Jaedon LeDee and Great Osobor, will do battle in the post.
A big part of what makes these two players the top athletes in the Mountain West is that they’re first and second in scoring. LeDee sits at the top, averaging 20.5 points per game with Osobor not far behind at 19.1. They’re first and second in rebounding too, Osobor leading the way this time at 9.6 per game and LeDee at 8.6. In fact, there are nine statistical categories in which Osobor and LeDee are first and second (most of those involving points, rebounds or catch-all performance metrics).
“I really think they’re two of the hardest guys to guard in the low post in the entire country,” Sprinkle said. “They’ve both proven it this year. It’ll be a fun matchup.”
Of all the stats for which Osobor and LeDee rank high in the Mountain West, one of the most potentially impactful for the purposes of this game is free throw and fouls drawn rates. Osobor ranks 11th in fouls drawn per 40 minutes per KenPom with LeDee ranking 17th. With the two likely to spend at least a decent amount of time guarding each other, one or the other getting into foul trouble could shift the balance of the entire match.
With a prizefight in the frontcourt it could be easy to get distracted from another massive matchup in this game. Darius Brown and Lamont Butler and both great point-of-attack defenders and the architects of their respective offenses as Brown leads the Aggies in assists per game with Butler doing the same for the Aztecs. But it’s the defensive pressure Butler brings that will keep Sprinkle up at night.
“He might be one of the best on-ball defenders in the country,” Sprinkle said. “Not only does he have great size and athleticism, but he’s got hands really quick like Jaelen House. He’s a lot bigger than House and thicker, but he has the same quickness of his hands and if you try to cross over in front of him he’s taking it.”
With big, physical stalwarts like LeDee and Butler leading the team, along with other big, strong players like Reese Dixon-Waters on the wing and Elijah Saunders in the paint, this will be among the most physical teams the Aggies will play. Even smaller and slighter guys like Micah Parrish and Darrion Trammell will get up in the Aggies’ faces and make them uncomfortable. And that’s something USU will have to deal with without turning the ball over.
On the note of turnovers, it’s been a consistent bugaboo for Utah State. In its last four games, the Aggies are averaging 12.8 turnovers per game, up from 10.8 in the first 17 outings of the season. Osobor, though responsible for a 14-point, 10-rebound, seven assist game against Boise State and also a 31-point, seven rebound game against San Jose State, also had a combined 13 turnovers in those same two games. Giving the ball away unnecessarily is something that’s getting under Sprinkle’s skin.
“If we’re just gonna get outlets and literally throw the ball out of bounds, I can’t coach that. Nobody can coach that,” Sprinkle said. “We have to clean it up and it’s a focus deal. We’re not going to get away with that on Saturday.”
There are a lot of good reasons why Utah State has zero wins at Viejas in the 21st century. And there have been plenty of dang good Aggie teams that have come up short. If this year’s team wants to change that winless record, they’ll have to bring their A-game to the court.
Projected Starters
Utah State: 19-2 (7-1, 1st in MW)
- G — Darius Brown (6-2, Sr.) – 11.1 points | 3.6 rebounds | 6.9 assists
- G — Mason Falslev (6-3, Fr.) – 11.5 points | 4.7 rebounds | 2.7 assists
- G — Ian Martinez (6-3, Jr.) – 14.0 points | 3.6 rebounds | 1.7 assists
- F — Great Osobor (6-8, Jr.) – 19.1 points | 9.6 rebounds | 2.9 assists
- C — Isaac Johnson (7-0, So.) – 6.5 points | 3.3 rebounds | 1.0 assists
San Diego State: 16-5 (5-3, 4th in MW)
- G — Lamont Butler (6-2, Sr.) — 9.5 points | 2.2 rebounds | 3.4 assists
- G — Reese Dixon-Waters (6-5, Jr.) – 11.9 points | 3.9 rebounds | 1.2 assists
- F — Micah Parrish (6-6, Sr.) – 10.0 points | 4.1 rebounds | 1.8 assists
- F — Elijah Saunders (6-8, So.) – 6.0 points | 4.3 rebounds | 1.1 assists
- F — Jaedon LeDee (6-9, Sr.) – 20.5 points | 8.6 rebounds | 1.5 assists
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