Darius Brown. Photo by Robert K. Scott
LOGAN — So far this season, Utah State’s faced good teams, bad teams, mediocre teams and anything in between. And with a 13-1 record (the one loss being an overtime road loss in game two of the season), it’s clear the Aggies did not encounter any major issues with any of those teams. What USU hasn’t done yet is take on an elite team.
That’s what is coming to town on Saturday — an elite Colorado State team currently ranked 13th in the AP Top 25 poll.
The Aggies and Rams have identical 13-1 records, but AP voters and computer rankings favor CSU with its tougher schedule (Basketball Reference’s strength of schedule metric ranks Colorado State 17th and Utah State 104th), which includes three wins against teams that received votes in the latest AP Poll — Creighton, Colorado and New Mexico.
“Not much needs to be said about them,” USU head coach Danny Sprinkle said. “Obviously, the number 13 team in the country. They’ve had some tremendous wins. Not only this year. They’re a program. Niko (Medved) has done a tremendous job there.”
Medved has led the Rams to three 20-win seasons (and well on the way to a fourth) in his six seasons, though arguably just as familiar a name to Aggie fans is the Rams’ point guard, Isaiah Stevens. The fifth-year senior has started all but one of his 131 games of his career, all of it spent with Colorado State which boasts a 93-45 record in the time Stevens has been on its roster.
Since the start of last year, Stevens has averaged 17.7 points and 7.0 assists on deadly efficiency numbers (48.6 percent overall, 40.1 on threes and 85.2 on free throws).
“He doesn’t make mistakes,” Sprinkle said. “Watching film, like, you can’t watch too much film of him because you don’t find any weaknesses. And then you’re just like, man, I don’t know how we’re gonna stop him. He does not make bad decisions off ball screens. If guys are too far in help, he fires it to their guy and they get a shot. The second one of their guys is open, they get the ball. I mean, he’s just got a innate ability as a point guard.”
With Stevens’ career overlapping almost perfectly with Utah State’s five year run of making four NCAA Tournaments and one NIT, it’s no surprise that battles between the two sides have been rather back-and-forth. Aggie teams hold the overall advantage with a 5-4 record against Stevens and a 2-2 record in the Spectrum.
Exclude the 2021-22 season — Colorado State’s previous peak with Stevens, featuring a 25-6 record and six seed in the NCAA Tournament, and the low-point of USU’s last five years with a mere 18-16 overall mark — and the Aggies are 5-1 when facing off against a Stevens-led Rams team. Of course, this year’s CSU team is very likely just as good as that ’21-22 squad that went 3-0 against USU. But the key difference is this year’s Aggie team which looks to be better than their own ’21-22 counterpart who were 9-5 at this same point through the season.
Trivia and history aside, narrowing this game down to just Stevens vs the Aggies is quite reductive, since the Rams are far from a one-man show (no team capable of a 13-1 record is). Three CSU players aside from Stevens are currently averaging north of 12 points per game, making the Rams one of 13 Division I teams with at least four players averaging that many points per contest. Those other top scorers include a couple of graduate transfers, guard Nique Clifford via Colorado and forward Joel Scott the former D2 Player of the Year at Black Hills State, along with Patrick Cartier who is in his second season with the Rams after four years at Hillsdale.
That trio of highly talented supporting players gives the Rams more than enough firepower on offense when paired with Stevens and, consequently, they are 26th in raw points per game (84.1) along with ranking 10th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, 13th in Haslemetric’s offensive efficiency, and 14th in EvanMiya.com’s Offensive Bayesian Performance Rating.
The Rams are really good on offense, to put it simply.
The question may arise as to what areas of offense the Rams are good at, the answer would have to be: yes. Colorado State ranks 22nd in 3-point percentage, third in 2-point percentage (and unsurprisingly first in overall field goal percentage), and third in team assists per game. Per Synergy Sports tracking data, Colorado State is sixth in points per possession (PPP) in transition with an above-average rate of getting out in transition. That same data also shows how the Rams likely own the best pick-and-roll offense in the country, ranking 13th in PPP on plays were the ball-handler (i.e. Stevens) keeps the ball and tries to score and 26th when a pass to the roll man (Cartier or Scott) is made.
“They can spread you out, the paint’s open a lot,” Sprinkle said. “That’s why you have to do a great job guarding one-on-one, which is way easier said than done, especially with somebody like Stevens. But they do a great job, screening you. They screen you, they cut hard, and they’ve got tremendous players.”
Only two teams have managed to hold down the Colorado State offense to any significant degree and both are among the best defenses in the country — Creighton (21st in KenPom defensive efficiency) and Saint Mary’s (11th). Those two are the only teams to hold the Rams to under 70 points and along with New Mexico, which has a pretty solid defense itself (31st in the same KenPom defensive metric) account for the three lowest point totals forced on the Rams (64 by Saint Mary’s, 69 by Creighton, 76 from New Mexico).
That great defenses have managed to actually impact the freight train that’s been CSU’s offense should be highly encouraging to the Aggies. Their defense isn’t quite as high in rank (48th according to KenPom) as the others who’ve seen some defensive success against the Rams, but it is a top 50 defense in its own right.
Despite the elite nature of Colorado State, there’s a good deal of confidence in the Aggies to take down their foe. Betting lines and several computer prediction metrics (via ESPN, KenPom and EvanMiya) project a narrow USU victory, a testament to the Aggies’ own battle-tested team and strengths on offense, defense and perhaps most of all, the home-court advantage of the Dee Glen Smith Spectrum.
Projected Starters
Utah State (13-1)
- G – Darius Brown (6-2, Sr.) – 10.6 points | 3.6 rebounds | 7.6 assists
- G – Mason Falslev (6-3, Fr.) – 11.6 points | 4.6 rebounds | 2.9 assists
- G – Ian Martinez (6-3, Jr.) – 13.1 points | 3.2 rebounds | 1.5 assists
- F – Great Osobor (6-8, Jr.) – 18.4 points | 9.1 rebounds | 2.7 assists
- C – Isaac Johnson (7-0, So.) – 6.2 points | 2.5 rebounds | 0.7 assists
Colorado State (13-1)
- G — Isaiah Stevens (6-0, Sr.) — 17.4 points | 2.9 rebounds | 7.4 assists
- G – Jalen Lake (6-4, Jr.) – 8.0 points | 1.8 rebounds | 1.9 assists
- G – Nique Clifford (6-5, Sr.) – 13.1 points | 6.4 rebounds | 2.3 assists
- F – Joel Scott (6-7, Sr.) – 12.1 points | 5.9 rebounds | 1.4 assists
- F – Patrick Cartier (6-8, Sr.) – 13.5 points | 2.2 rebounds | 2.1 assists
Injuries
Utah State
- Max Agbonkpolo – OUT (Foot)
Colorado State
- Josiah Strong – OUT (Wrist)
Agbonkpolo is expected to miss the remainder of the season while Strong, who started the first eight games of the year and averaged 8.5 points, isn’t expected to return until later this month.
